What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 04, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketPolitics & Elections

Will Option Z win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Settles Nov 04, 2026 (3d) All outcomes: California Governor Election Winner Polls & election odds

chance of YES0%

Price range (120d)

—

24h volume

—

USDC traded

Open interest

$2.1M

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Not enough trading history to chart yet.

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Xavier Becerra98%$136.5K

Steve Hilton2%$171.8K

Eric Swalwell0%—

Katie Porter0%$1.0K

Tom Steyer0%—

Betty Yee0%—

Butch Ware0%—

Tony Thurmond0%—

How it settles

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.