What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 100%, implying a 100% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketWeather & Climate

↑4.5k: Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

chance of YES100% +1.7pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

26–100%

30d +14 pts · 7d -1 pts

24h volume

—

USDC traded

Open interest

$70.2K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

↑500100%—

↑4.5k100%—

↑3.5k100%—

↑3k100%—

↑2k100%—

↑1k100%—

↑4k100%—

↑4.75k100%$1.7K

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.