polymarket
Pop Culture
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5
6%
implied YES probability
+1.8pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 6% ·
Low 2%
· 7d +10.0pp
· 30d +92.1pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
-
Nuclear Is the Energy Story of 2026. Here Are 3 Stocks to Own All Year.
Motley Fool · 11h ago
-
SoFi Could Be One of 2026’s Best Fintech Buys at Current Depressed Levels
Yahoo Finance · 14h ago
-
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Tuesday, June 16, 2026: Highest opening values in two weeks
Yahoo Finance · 17h ago
-
Silver prices today, Tuesday, June 16: Best opening price in over a week ahead of Fed meeting
Yahoo Finance · 18h ago
-
SpaceX Shares Surge, US & Iran Prepare for Deal Signing | The Opening Trade 6/16/2026
Bloomberg Markets · 18h ago
Trade on Polymarket
Open on Polymarket
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate
public order-book and trading data for analysis.
Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.