What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 48%, implying a 48% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Technology

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

December 31, 2026

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $4.5K Open interest $314.8K Event OpenAI IPO by...?

48%

implied YES probability

+2.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 90 days · High 76% · Low 25% · 7d -39.7pp · 30d +68.5pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

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Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.