Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market is asking whether Iran will agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026. The current price of this market implies a 0% probability that such an agreement will occur. Known facts informing the current price are the lack of any publicly announced agreements or commitments from Iran regarding the surrender of its enriched uranium stockpile. A change in the price upwards would likely require new information indicating increased willingness by Iran to negotiate or agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, potentially through diplomatic efforts or international pressure. Conversely, a decrease in the price would be driven by further evidence suggesting that Iran is unlikely to agree to such an arrangement, possibly due to continued resistance or lack of international consensus on the issue.