Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market is asking whether Iran will agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026. The current price of 0.03 implies a 3% probability that this event will occur. Known facts informing the current price include any official statements or agreements made by Iran regarding the surrender of its enriched uranium stockpile. A change in the price upwards would require new information indicating a higher likelihood of Iran agreeing to surrender its stockpile, such as a breakthrough in negotiations with the U.S. or Israel. Conversely, a decrease in the price would be driven by news suggesting that Iran is unlikely to agree to surrender its stockpile, such as continued tensions between Iran and Western powers.