China x Japan military clash before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market for a China-Japan military clash before 2027 currently indicates an 8% probability of such an event occurring, with a YES price of 0.07. This assessment is informed by known facts about the current state of relations between China and Japan, including any tensions or disputes that may be present in their bilateral relationship. The market's valuation does not take into account potential future developments or changes in circumstances that could impact the likelihood of a military clash. A significant shift in these underlying dynamics would be required to move the price up or down, such as a major escalation in tensions between the two nations or a breakthrough in diplomatic efforts to resolve outstanding issues.