Xi Jinping out before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market for Xi Jinping's removal from power before 2027 indicates a 5% probability that he will be out of office by the end of 2026. This assessment is informed by known facts about Xi's grip on power and the Chinese Communist Party's dynamics. The current price suggests that market participants do not foresee significant changes in Xi's status quo, with no major events or developments currently driving the price up or down. A shift in this assessment would require a notable change in Xi's leadership or a significant alteration in China's political landscape.