What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 10%, implying a 10% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Apr 01, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketWorld

Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?

Settles Apr 01, 2028 (517d) All outcomes: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

chance of YES10%

Price range (120d)

2–10%

· 7d +276 pts

24h volume

$88

USDC traded

Open interest

$75.6K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Yulia Navalnaya12%$660

Jimmy Lai12%$115

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms11%$127

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya10%$117

Donald Trump8%$20

International Criminal Court7%$20

Pope Leo XIV6%$608

International Court of Justice5%$513

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.