Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market for the Iranian regime falling before 2027 currently shows a price of 0.10, indicating a 10% probability that this event will occur. This assessment is informed by known facts such as ongoing political tensions and economic challenges facing the regime, as well as international pressure and sanctions imposed on Iran. The current price does not reflect any specific events or developments that would necessarily change the outcome, but rather represents a general consensus among market participants about the likelihood of the regime falling before 2027. Any significant changes in these underlying factors could potentially impact the price, with an increase in probability leading to a higher YES price and vice versa.