What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 23%, implying a 23% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketTech & AI

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

chance of YES23% +9.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

10–64%

30d -57 pts · 7d -51 pts

24h volume

$3.7K

USDC traded

Open interest

$28.9K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

This is a market on whether OpenAI will release a consumer hardware product by the specified date.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.