Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock(AVTX)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$14.72
- 52-Week Range
- $4.46 – $24.27
- YTD
- -13.51%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 2.53
- Straddle Price
- $2.95
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.95
- Market Cap
- $0.7B
Fair Value
-9.3% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.53% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.03% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 10.01% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +23.7pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.1B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -124.0% |
| Book / Price | 34.3% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 100.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | -101172.9% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 2/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $15.59 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $15.24 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 295.4% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.0B |
| Market Cap | $0B |
Peers used for multiples: ABBV, ABT, BMY, JNJ, LLY, MRK, PFE, VRTX
Blended Fair Value
$13.38
Current Price
$14.76
Deviation
-9.3%
Forward-Return Rank
SHORT
gates ✓
?
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | -2.8% | +0.03 | -0.46 | 84.6% | — |
| 42d | -6.2% | -0.41 | -0.46 | 84.6% | — |
| 63d | -8.1% | -0.61 | -0.46 | 84.6% | — |
Expected α = forward-return point estimate vs SPY (e.g., +7.5% means the predictor expects this stock to outperform SPY by 7.5% over that horizon).
For SHORT direction the model uses a different ranking metric (conviction-weighted deviation, not the LGBM prediction); Expected α is shown for reference.
⚠ flags rows where Expected α disagrees with the FV direction — two independent signals are in conflict; conviction is low even if rank looks extreme.
Forward-Return Rank. A proprietary ensemble of a machine-learning forward-return model and a conviction-weighted fundamental score, ranked cross-sectionally each day across the S&P 500 (and broader universes on the screener). Each stock is scored at three horizons (21/42/63 trading days). "Active" = top/bottom 5% AND all risk filters pass. Backtested mean alpha vs SPY on active picks: 21d LONG +13.4%, 63d +34.9% (S&P 500, walk-forward). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Value vs momentum conflict ⚠. The "FV direction" (long/short) comes from the fundamentals-based engine — price vs intrinsic value. The "Expected α" comes from a separate machine-learning predictor trained on ~12 features (sector, options-implied move, beta, institutional flow, etc.). Sometimes the two disagree: a stock is overvalued by fundamentals but the predictor expects it to keep outperforming (sector or momentum tailwinds). When all 3 horizons disagree, treat the direction signal as low-conviction — neither model is strongly recommending a position.
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 26.4× · 8 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 17.2× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/B | $26.75 | 50% | median 5.7× · 7 peers |
| Peer P/S | $0.02 | 50% | median 5.2× · 8 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $15.59 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
As of 2026-06-12 · updated 2026-06-12 20:59:55.687000
Info
- Industry (SIC)
- PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (2834)
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $0.7B
Avalo Therapeutics Inc is a clinical stage biotechnology company fully dedicated to developing IL-1B-based treatments for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. The company's asset is Abdakibart (AVTX-009) an anti-IL-1B monoclonal antibody ("mAb"), targeting inflammatory diseases. Avalos pipeline also includes quisovalimab (anti-LIGHT mAb) and AVTX-008 (BTLA agonist fusion protein), AVTX-006 and AVTX-913.
Price History
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | -23.22% | 5 |
| Feb | -13.97% | 5 |
| Mar | +71.80% | 5 |
| Apr | -10.77% | 5 |
| May | -10.30% | 5 |
| Jun | -5.29% | 5 |
| Jul | -8.82% | 4 |
| Aug | -7.42% | 5 |
| Sep | +6.74% | 5 |
| Oct | +30.22% | 5 |
| Nov | -15.25% | 5 |
| Dec | -17.47% | 5 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $15.03
SMA 50: $15.55
SMA 200: $15.45
Current: $14.76
EMA 12: $14.23
EMA 26: $15.03
MACD: -0.8042 | Signal: -0.1526
BEARISH
ADX (14): 22.17
WEAK TREND
+DI: 20.04
−DI: 24.35
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 48.00
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 31.19
Stoch %D: 18.04
Williams %R: -44.69
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $18.00
BB Lower: $12.06
NEUTRAL
OBV: 26,124,881
Vol SMA 20: 1,444,104
Vol ROC: 4.15%
ATR: $1.18
True Range: $1.15
HV 20: 70.5%
HV 30: 120.2%
HV 60: 101.9%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-13T13:41:18.284000
Date Range: 2024-06-14T00:00:00 – 2026-06-12T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Earnings History
6 of 6 under expected move
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-12 | After-Close | 125.00% | 8.91% | 0.07x | Within |
| 2025-08-07 | After-Close | 53.89% | 6.95% | 0.13x | Within |
| 2025-11-06 | After-Close | 22.37% | 2.40% | 0.11x | Within |
| 2026-01-12 | After-Close | 19.25% | 3.19% | 0.17x | Within |
| 2026-03-23 | After-Close | 36.95% | 0.96% | 0.03x | Within |
| 2026-05-07 | After-Close | 12.35% | 7.74% | 0.63x | Within |
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 2.53
- IV Rank (7D)
- 32.42
- Avg IV
- 140.3%
- Straddle (30D)
- $2.95
- Straddle (7D)
- $1.20
- P/C Volume
- 0.95
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 1.73
- Correlation (SPY)
- 23.6%
- R²
- 0.06
- Ann. Volatility
- 90.5%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.3%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 14,585,491 (as of 2026-03-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
11 filers$42.99M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logos Global Management LP | $14.93M | 34.73% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | Caption Management, LLC | $9.43M | 21.94% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $7.08M | 16.47% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | Ikarian Capital, LLC | $5.99M | 13.94% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | BOOTHBAY FUND MANAGEMENT, LLC | $1.75M | 4.07% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $997.32K | 2.32% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN Custodian | $777.85K | 1.81% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | DLD Asset Management, LP | $742.50K | 1.73% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $742.02K | 1.73% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $301.59K | 0.70% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $247.84K | 0.58% | 2026-03-31 |
5 filers$5.70M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $2.43M | 42.67% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | Ikarian Capital, LLC | $2.37M | 41.49% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | BOOTHBAY FUND MANAGEMENT, LLC | $662.89K | 11.62% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $155.27K | 2.72% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $85.10K | 1.49% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Latest: 2026-06-04
Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Rita Jain | Director | Grant (A) | +20,100 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-04 | GILLA KAPLAN | Director | Grant (A) | +20,100 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-04 | Kevin Robert Lind | Director | Grant (A) | +20,100 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-04 | Michael Thomas Heffernan | Director | Grant (A) | +29,500 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-04 | Samantha Truex | Director | Grant (A) | +20,100 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-04 | AARON KANTOFF | Director | Grant (A) | +20,100 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-01 | Mittie Doyle | Chief Medical Officer | Mixed | — | $12.02 | -$5.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-26 | PAUL VARKI | Chief Legal Officer | Award (A) | +24,300 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-26 | GARRY ARTHUR NEIL | Chief Executive Officer | Award (A) | +100,200 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-26 | Mittie Doyle | Chief Medical Officer | Award (A) | +43,500 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-26 | Jennifer Riley | Chief Strategy Officer | Award (A) | +34,200 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-26 | Christopher Ryan Sullivan | Chief Financial Officer | Award (A) | +39,900 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-19 | Mittie Doyle | Chief Medical Officer | Mixed | — | $15.71 | -$18.3K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-11 | Christopher Ryan Sullivan | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | — | $17.00 | -$265.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-07 | Mitchell Chan | Director | Sell (S) | −3,167 | $22.88 | -$72.5K | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
Insider Holdings
15 insiders · @ $14.76
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC | Director | 765,828 | $11.30M | -$1.94M | 6 | 2023-06-28 |
| 2 | GARRY ARTHUR NEIL | Chief Executive Officer | 190,314 | $2.81M | $29.6K | 12 | 2026-05-26 |
| 3 | Mittie Doyle | Chief Medical Officer | 47,801 | $705.5K | -$2.79M | 11 | 2026-06-01 |
| 4 | Christopher Ryan Sullivan | Chief Financial Officer | 40,323 | $595.2K | -$1.89M | 16 | 2026-05-26 |
| 5 | Jennifer Riley | Chief Strategy Officer | 36,855 | $544.0K | $0 | 4 | 2026-05-26 |
| 6 | James Archie Jr Harrell | Chief Commercial Officer | 36,766 | $542.7K | $1.7K | 1 | 2021-12-14 |
| 7 | H Jeffrey Wilkins | Chief Medical Officer | 33,373 | $492.6K | $10.0K | 1 | 2021-12-14 |
| 8 | PAUL VARKI | Chief Legal Officer | 27,934 | $412.3K | -$1.51M | 6 | 2026-05-26 |
| 9 | Jonathan Goldman | Director | 8,200 | $121.0K | -$162.9K | 4 | 2025-11-17 |
| 10 | June Sherie Almenoff | Director | 4,167 | $61.5K | $12.7K | 14 | 2025-06-18 |
| 11 | Schond L. Greenway | CFO | 3,883 | $57.3K | $3.5K | 1 | 2021-12-14 |
| 12 | GILLA KAPLAN | Director | 3,167 | $46.7K | $0 | 11 | 2026-06-04 |
| 13 | AARON KANTOFF | Director | 3,167 | $46.7K | $0 | 4 | 2026-06-04 |
| 14 | Samantha Truex | Director | 3,167 | $46.7K | $0 | 4 | 2026-06-04 |
| 15 | Mitchell Chan | Director | 3,166 | $46.7K | -$72.5K | 7 | 2026-05-07 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/B Ratio | 10.5 |
| P/S Ratio | 12179.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | -8.8 |
| TTM Revenue | $0.0B |
| TTM Net Income | $-0.1B |
| TTM EPS | $-5.46 |
| ROE | -124.0% |