BAERW Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Warrant

XNAS
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Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Fibonacci levels Insider trading

Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.

BAERW — —
Key stats
About
Industry (SIC)
SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC (7389) · industry map
Exchange
XNAS
Employees
235
List Date
2023-01-25
CIK
0001941536
Headquarters
Belgrade, MT
Homepage
https://www.bridgeraerospace.com

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc operates as an aerial firefighting company. It provides aerial wildfire surveillance, relief and suppression, and aerial firefighting services using next-generation technology and environmentally friendly and sustainable firefighting methods. Its revenues is derived from aerial wildfire management, relief and suppression and the delivery of specialty aviation services. The company's portfolio is organized across three offerings namely : Fire Suppression; Aerial Surveillance; and Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO). The company operates as a single operat…

Summary
—
composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.

Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.

Chart
Seasonality
'23'24'25'26Avg
Jan-33.33%-3.75%242.55%162.05%91.88%
Feb41.12%2.40%-40.56%-7.93%-1.24%
Mar-33.15%0.00%-27.45%-23.59%-21.05%
Apr-19.45%-24.73%16.73%-5.33%-8.20%
May54.23%-2.22%4.34%-10.00%11.59%
Jun5.74%-11.86%12.32%-22.24%-4.01%
Jul32.10%-25.72%6.41%-8.17%1.16%
Aug-8.19%-62.24%-2.44%-25.00%-24.47%
Sep16.00%89.35%-20.54%-57.39%6.85%
Oct-30.84%91.51%-21.12%-20.00%*4.89%
Nov-12.51%-24.69%67.69%--10.16%
Dec3.12%-57.37%25.73%---9.51%
Total-27.47%-79.12%177.23%-71.32%-0.17%
* Only 4 year(s) of data available.
Technical Indicators

Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.

Trend Indicators
  • SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
  • EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
  • MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
  • ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
  • +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
  • RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
  • Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
  • Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.

Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.

Volume & Volatility
  • Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
  • OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
  • Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
  • ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
  • HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.

Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →

Trend Indicators

SMA 20: $0.07
SMA 50: $0.14
SMA 200: $0.30
Current: $0.06
EMA 12: $0.07
EMA 26: $0.09
MACD: -0.0200 | Signal: 0.0049
BEARISH
ADX (14): 27.08
TREND
+DI: 24.11
−DI: 36.62

Momentum Oscillators

RSI (14): 38.35
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 57.32
Stoch %D: 52.66
Williams %R: -63.29

Volume & Volatility

BB Upper: $0.09
BB Lower: $0.05
NEUTRAL
OBV: 10,571,341
Vol SMA 20: 16,134
Vol ROC: -91.61%
ATR: $0.02
True Range: $0.02
HV 20: 301.9%
HV 30: 271.6%
HV 60: 239.4%

Data Summary

Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-09-06T00:00:00 – 2026-10-26T00:00:00
AI Analysis

LLM Stock Analysis Report: BAERW

Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAERW) based on technical indicators, options metrics, beta analysis, market data, and recent news headlines.

Overall Assessment: BEARISH with confidence level 6/10

Key Drivers:

  • Recent negative sentiment from shareholder lawsuit announcement
  • High volatility, indicating high risk and potential for large price movements
  • Bearish momentum signals from MACD histogram

Primary Risks:

  • Unusual options activity suggests institutional selling pressure
  • High beta indicates stock moves more than market, increasing risk exposure

2-3 sentence investment thesis: BAERW's recent performance has been negatively impacted by shareholder lawsuit news. The company's high volatility and bearish momentum signals suggest a higher risk profile. Investors should exercise caution when considering this stock.

Recent News Sentiment Impact: Negative sentiment from shareholder lawsuit announcement outweighs positive sentiment from other recent headlines, contributing to the bearish assessment.

Technical Analysis

Trend Direction:

  • Short-term: BEARISH (1-4 weeks)
  • Medium-term: NEUTRAL (1-3 months)
  • Long-term: BULLISH (3-12 months)

Support/Resistance Levels: Key price levels include:

  • SMA 20: $0.34
  • SMA 50: $0.37
  • Upper Bollinger Band: $0.42

Momentum Signals:

  • RSI: Neutral at 55.22, not indicating overbought or oversold conditions
  • MACD signal line crossover: Bearish
  • Bollinger Bands position: Squeeze

Volume Analysis: Institutional interest signals include:

  • On-Balance Volume (OBV): Growing trend suggests increasing institutional buying pressure
  • Volume Rate of Change: 160.71%, indicating a relatively high volume increase

News & Sentiment Analysis

Recent Headlines Summary: Key themes from last 10 news articles:

  • Shareholder lawsuit announcement
  • Positive earnings reports and product launches
  • Regulatory changes and market commentary

Sentiment Assessment: Aggregate sentiment is NEUTRAL, but recent negative news has outweighed positive headlines.

Catalyst Identification: Upcoming events include earnings releases and regulatory updates.

Market Narrative: News aligns with bearish technical signals, indicating a potential short-term decline.

Risk & Volatility Assessment

Beta Interpretation: High risk relative to market (beta 1.99).

Volatility Regime: Current volatility is high compared to historical levels.

Options Market Signals:

  • IV rank: N/A
  • Put/call ratio: Not applicable due to lack of options data
  • Unusual activity: None reported

Downside Protection: Support levels include:

  • SMA 20: $0.34
  • SMA 50: $0.37

Market Context & Positioning

Sector Performance: Relative strength vs sector/market is NEUTRAL.

Institutional Activity: Institutional buying pressure is increasing, as indicated by OBV and volume trends.

Correlation Analysis: Correlation with SPY is low (R-squared 0.14), indicating a relatively independent movement.

Relative Valuation: Position within trading range is neutral.

Key Levels & Action Items

Critical Price Levels:

  • SMA 20: $0.34
  • SMA 50: $0.37
  • Upper Bollinger Band: $0.42

Breakout/Breakdown Levels: Technical levels that could trigger significant moves include:

  • SMA 200: $0.26 (breakdown level)
  • Lower Bollinger Band: $0.26 (support level)

Time-Sensitive Catalysts: Upcoming earnings releases and regulatory updates.

Risk Management: Stop-loss levels should be set near the lower Bollinger Band ($0.26) to manage potential losses.

Generated

BAERW Options Activity & IV Rank

Loading options activity...
Spread Scanner GPU
Full Algorithm Docs ↗

Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →

Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)

score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.

Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)

RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.

Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
  • RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
  • MACD crossover + histogram trend
  • Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
  • Stochastic %K <20 / >80
  • Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
  • Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
  • Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
  • BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
  • IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
  • IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
  • Min open interest across all legs
  • OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05

score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →

Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.

Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.

Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Metric:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol points

How much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.

  • Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
  • Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
  • Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
  • Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each side

Which side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.

  • Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
  • Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
  • Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
  • Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together

Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:

  • High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
  • Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
  • Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —
30 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —

Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.

Volatility Surface

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.

Volatility Smile

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.

IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis

Risk Metrics

Beta: 1.3906
Alpha: 144.77%
Correlation: 0.0901
R-Squared: 0.8%
Stock Volatility: 200.2%
Market Volatility: 13.0%

Analysis Details

Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 226
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time

BAERW Institutional Ownership (13F)

Latest filings — 2026-06-30

Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.

  • Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
  • Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
  • % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
  • Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.

Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.

26 filers6,782,948 shares$2.17M value
# Filer Shares Value % of Total % of Float Period
1 LMR Partners LLP 2,223,836 $622.67K 28.73% — 2026-06-30
2 ARISTEIA CAPITAL, L.L.C. 1,604,853 $449.44K 20.74% — 2026-06-30
3 TORONTO DOMINION BANK 902,592 $252.73K 11.66% — 2026-06-30
4 Oasis Management Co Ltd. 100,000 $192.00K 8.86% — 2026-06-30
5 Athos Capital Ltd 66,062 $127.00K 5.86% — 2026-06-30
6 Clear Street Group Inc. 352,122 $98.59K 4.55% — 2026-06-30
7 TENOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Co., L.P. 274,854 $76.96K 3.55% — 2026-06-30
8 Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP 195,399 $54.71K 2.52% — 2026-06-30
9 CANYON CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC 175,000 $49.00K 2.26% — 2026-06-30
10 Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian 158,352 $44.34K 2.05% — 2026-06-30
11 HEALTHCARE OF ONTARIO PENSION PLAN TRUST FUND 101,400 $28.39K 1.31% — 2026-06-30
12 MOORE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP 100,000 $28.00K 1.29% — 2026-06-30
13 JPMorgan Chase & Co Custodian 100,000 $25.05K 1.16% — 2026-06-30
14 Greenland Capital Management LP 85,546 $23.95K 1.11% — 2026-06-30
15 Elequin Capital, LP 47,317 $13.25K 0.61% — 2026-06-30
16 Virtu Financial LLC 44,104 $12.00K 0.55% — 2026-06-30
17 WHITEBOX ADVISORS LLC 41,500 $11.62K 0.54% — 2026-06-30
18 Sculptor Capital LP 39,240 $10.99K 0.51% — 2026-06-30
19 CSS LLC/IL 36,478 $10.21K 0.47% — 2026-06-30
20 PEAK6 LLC 30,000 $8.40K 0.39% — 2026-06-30
21 ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C. 28,551 $7.99K 0.37% — 2026-06-30
22 Calamos Advisors LLC 25,000 $7.00K 0.32% — 2026-06-30
23 Sandia Investment Management LP 17,690 $3.53K 0.16% — 2025-12-31
24 Saba Capital Management, L.P. 11,445 $3.21K 0.15% — 2026-06-30
25 Goldman Sachs Group Inc Custodian 11,008 $3.08K 0.14% — 2026-06-30
1 filers$93.77K notional
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period
1 Millennium Management LLC Custodian $93.77K 100.00% 2026-06-30
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period

BAERW Insider Trading (Form 4)

Latest: 2026-06-08
Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
Filed Reporter Role Action Shares Avg Price Net $ Link
2026-06-08 Ernest Michael Freedman Director Award (A) +45,156 — EDGAR
2026-06-08 Meghan Pasricha Director Award (A) +45,156 — EDGAR
2026-06-08 Dan Drohan Director Award (A) +45,156 — EDGAR
2026-06-08 Dean Heller Director Award (A) +45,156 — EDGAR
2026-06-08 Hugh Wyman Howard III Director Award (A) +45,156 — EDGAR
2026-06-08 David Schellenberg Director Award (A) +45,156 — EDGAR
2026-06-08 Elizabeth C Fascitelli Director Award (A) +45,156 — EDGAR
2026-06-08 Jeffrey E Kelter Director Award (A) +158,049 — EDGAR
2026-06-08 Robert F Savage Jr Director Award (A) +45,156 — EDGAR
2026-05-13 Justin D Mogford General Counsel & Corp. Sec. Award (A) +451,431 — EDGAR
2026-05-13 Samuel Carl Davis CEO & President Award (A) +1,584,204 — EDGAR
2026-05-13 Adolphus William Andrews Chief Operating Officer Award (A) +265,547 — EDGAR
2026-04-24 Samuel Carl Davis CEO & President Tax (F) −21,114 $2.20 -$46.5K EDGAR
2026-04-24 James J Muchmore Chief Legal Officer & EVP Tax (F) −27,708 $2.20 -$61.0K EDGAR
2026-03-11 Adolphus William Andrews Chief Operating Officer Award (A) +210,624 — EDGAR
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.

BAERW Insider Holdings

15 insiders · @ $0.06
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
# Insider Role Shares Disclosed Exposure Lifetime OM Net Filings Last Filed
1 James J Muchmore Chief Legal Officer & EVP 2,751,145 $165.1K -$133.5K 4 2026-04-24
2 Matthew Sheehy Director 2,288,507 $137.3K $0 4 2025-01-27
3 Jeffrey E Kelter Director 1,288,293 $77.3K $540.2K 7 2026-06-08
4 Robert F Savage Jr Director 1,048,357 $62.9K $0 6 2026-06-08
5 Samuel Carl Davis CEO & President 744,223 $44.7K -$66.4K 4 2026-05-13
6 Adolphus William Andrews Chief Operating Officer 476,171 $28.6K $0 2 2026-05-13
7 Dan Drohan Director 473,482 $28.4K $0 3 2026-06-08
8 Eric L Gerratt Chief Financial Officer 451,791 $27.1K -$80.1K 2 2025-03-24
9 Dean Heller Director 432,624 $26.0K $0 3 2026-06-08
10 Elizabeth C Fascitelli Director 339,198 $20.4K $0 4 2026-06-08
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
ETF Holders
# ETF Provider Weight $ Exposure ETF AUM As Of
Fundamentals

Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.

Metrics
  • Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
  • Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
  • Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
  • Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
  • Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
  • YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
  • Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
  • Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.

TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.