THCH TH International Limited Ordinary shares

XNAS 1.05 Delayed
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THCH $1.05 —
Key stats
$1.05
52-Week Range
$1.00 – $3.25
YTD
-58.33%
Straddle Price
$0.00
Market Cap
$0.0B
Open
$1.05
Day Range
$1.00 – $1.05
Volume
9,821
Prev Close
$1.00
Fair Value

A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.

  • DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
  • Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
  • DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
  • P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
  • Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
  • Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
  • Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
  • Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
10-yr Treasury (rf)5.19%
Beta vs SPY0.77
Cost of Equity (CAPM)9.02% (VRP-adj)
WACC5.31%
Volatility Risk Premium+198.6pp (IV − HV30)
Effective Tax Rate21.0%
Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input)+3.0%
DCF Horizon5 years explicit + fade
Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM)×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S)
Quality Score0/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF)
SMA 50$1.33 (Market Anchor value)
SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid$1.19
Bollinger Width / SMA203258.7% (drives anchor stability)
Net Debt$0.1B
Blended Fair Value
—
Deviation
—
MethodImplied PriceWeightDetail
DCF n/a 0%
DDM (Gordon) n/a 0%
Peer P/E n/a 0%
Peer EV/EBITDA n/a 0%
Peer P/B n/a 0%
Peer P/S n/a 0%
Market Anchor (SMA50) $1.33 0% stability 0% (BB-width)
Options Expected (B-L 30d) n/a 0%
As of 2026-10-19 · updated
About
Industry (SIC)
RETAIL-EATING PLACES (5812) · industry map
Exchange
XNAS
Market Cap
$0.0B
Employees
1,580
List Date
2022-09-29
CIK
0001877333
Next Earnings
2026-12-08
Homepage
https://www.timschina.com

TH International Ltd is the exclusive master franchisee in China for Tim Hortons, a world-wide coffee and bakery shop brand. Through the Tim Hortons brand, the firm offers freshly brewed coffee, tea, and other beverages, bakery & sides, and sandwiches. The Company operated under a single reportable segment, Tim Hortons. The company's revenue is derived from sales of food, beverages, and packaged products by company-owned and operated stores, franchise fees, and revenue from other franchise support activities. Its geographic revenue is derived from operations in the PRC.

Summary
—
composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.

Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.

Chart
Seasonality
'22'23'24'25'26Avg
Jan--9.39%-5.81%-14.05%-20.24%-7.68%
Feb--64.01%-18.99%-0.48%15.77%15.08%
Mar---21.58%-12.88%-2.01%-1.90%-9.59%
Apr--18.84%0.00%-4.68%3.90%4.51%
May---43.01%5.66%2.09%-4.76%-10.00%
Jun--0.70%-34.92%6.27%-4.98%-8.23%
Jul--3.11%-10.59%-7.34%-5.85%-5.17%
Aug---25.17%-8.54%-12.71%-19.77%-16.55%
Sep-17.97%-24.90%32.20%0.97%-3.70%-2.68%
Oct-37.31%-9.09%-16.79%0.56%-24.24%*-17.37%
Nov0.00%29.25%30.43%-2.21%--14.37%
Dec-22.78%-8.85%-19.32%-3.30%---13.56%
Total-60.29%-40.45%-56.73%-32.69%-53.06%-48.64%
Technical Indicators

Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.

Trend Indicators
  • SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
  • EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
  • MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
  • ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
  • +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
  • RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
  • Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
  • Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.

Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.

Volume & Volatility
  • Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
  • OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
  • Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
  • ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
  • HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.

Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →

Trend Indicators

SMA 20: $1.18
SMA 50: $1.31
SMA 200: $1.81
Current: $1.00
EMA 12: $1.10
EMA 26: $1.19
MACD: -0.0912 | Signal: -0.0137
BEARISH
ADX (14): 13.11
RANGE
+DI: 30.86
−DI: 31.97

Momentum Oscillators

RSI (14): 36.73
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 0.75
Stoch %D: 9.37
Williams %R: -98.87

Volume & Volatility

BB Upper: $1.41
BB Lower: $0.94
NEUTRAL
OBV: -168,708
Vol SMA 20: 6,705
Vol ROC: 616.34%
ATR: $0.10
True Range: $0.05
HV 20: 113.5%
HV 30: 96.3%
HV 60: 99.5%

Data Summary

Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-08T00:00:00 – 2026-10-19T00:00:00
AI Analysis

LLM Stock Analysis Report

SYMBOL: THCH

Executive Summary

Overall Assessment: BEARISH (Confidence Level: 6/10)

Key Drivers: Recent price action, negative beta, and bearish momentum signals

Primary Risks: Continued market volatility, potential earnings miss, and high implied volatility

Investment Thesis: THCH is a high-risk stock with a strong negative correlation to the market. The recent price decline and bearish momentum signals suggest further downside pressure.

Recent News Sentiment Impact: Neutral news headlines have not significantly impacted the stock price.

Technical Analysis

Trend Direction: Short-term downtrend (1-4 weeks)

Support/Resistance Levels:

  • Key price levels:
    • Lower Bollinger Band: $1.82
    • 50-day SMA: $2.04
  • Resistance levels:
    • Upper Bollinger Band: $2.15

Momentum Signals:

  • RSI (14): 50.52 (neutral)
  • MACD: -0.04 / Signal: -0.00 / Histogram: -0.04 (bearish)

News & Sentiment Analysis

Recent Headlines Summary: Neutral news headlines have not significantly impacted the stock price.

Sentiment Assessment: Neutral

Catalyst Identification: No significant upcoming events or announcements.

Market Narrative: The recent price decline is driven by bearish momentum signals and negative beta, with no clear catalyst for a reversal.

Risk & Volatility Assessment

Beta Interpretation: High-risk stock with a strong negative correlation to the market (beta = -0.12).

Volatility Regime: Current volatility levels are high relative to historical averages.

Options Market Signals:

  • IV Rank: 44.1% (Medium)
  • Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.00 (Bullish sentiment)

Market Context & Positioning

Sector Performance: Weak performance in the sector, with THCH underperforming the market.

Institutional Activity: Low institutional interest signals a lack of support for the stock.

Correlation Analysis: High negative correlation to the market, indicating potential further downside pressure.

Relative Valuation: Overvalued within its trading range, with no clear catalyst for a reversal.

Key Levels & Action Items

Critical Price Levels:

  • Lower Bollinger Band: $1.82
  • 50-day SMA: $2.04

Breakout/Breakdown Levels: No clear breakout or breakdown levels identified.

Time-Sensitive Catalysts: No upcoming events or announcements that could significantly impact the stock price.

Risk Management: Stop-loss levels should be set at around $1.85, with position sizing considerations given the high volatility and negative beta.

By analyzing the technical indicators, news headlines, and risk metrics, we conclude that THCH is a high-risk stock with a strong negative correlation to the market. The recent price decline and bearish momentum signals suggest further downside pressure, while the high implied volatility highlights potential for increased market volatility.

Generated
News
All THCH news →

THCH Options Activity & IV Rank

Volatility Metrics

Current IV: —
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $0.00
7-DTE Move: $0.00
Days to Exp: 32 (2026-11-20)

Options Flow

Call Volume: 0
Put Volume: 0
P/C Volume: —
Call OI: 0
Put OI: 0
P/C OI: —
Total OI: 0

ATM Options Pricing

ATM Call: $0.00
ATM Put: $0.00
Call %: 0.0%
Put %: 0.0%

Chain Summary

Chain Volume: 2
Chain OI: 2
Last Updated: 10/19/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Full Algorithm Docs ↗

Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →

Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)

score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.

Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)

RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.

Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
  • RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
  • MACD crossover + histogram trend
  • Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
  • Stochastic %K <20 / >80
  • Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
  • Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
  • Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
  • BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
  • IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
  • IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
  • Min open interest across all legs
  • OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05

score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →

Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.

Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.

Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Metric:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol points

How much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.

  • Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
  • Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
  • Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
  • Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each side

Which side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.

  • Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
  • Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
  • Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
  • Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together

Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:

  • High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
  • Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
  • Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
No data
30 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
ATM 347.5% / Wing —

Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.

Volatility Surface

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.

Volatility Smile

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.

IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$0.00Oct 19
Beta Analysis

Risk Metrics

Beta: 0.4021
Alpha: -64.63%
Correlation: 0.0619
R-Squared: 0.4%
Stock Volatility: 83.5%
Market Volatility: 12.8%

Analysis Details

Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 246
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Notable investors who own THCH
1 of 37 tracked investors
InvestorValueShare of their portfolioRankQ/Q sharesSource
Citadel Hedge fund
Ken Griffin
$116K
0.00%
#5733 of 6285+8.8%13F

Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions

THCH Institutional Ownership (13F)

Latest filings — 2026-06-30
Diluted shares outstanding: 32,519,377 (as of 2025-12-31)

Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.

  • Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
  • Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
  • % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
  • Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.

Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.

14 filers3,380,259 shares$6.46M value10.39% of float
# Filer Shares Value % of Total % of Float Period
1 HSG Holding Ltd 2,900,606 $5.54M 85.82% 8.92% 2026-06-30
2 ZAZOVE ASSOCIATES LLC 200,281 $382.54K 5.93% 0.62% 2026-06-30
3 SONA ASSET MANAGEMENT (US) LLC 100,000 $191.00K 2.96% 0.31% 2026-06-30
4 Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian 60,526 $115.61K 1.79% 0.19% 2026-06-30
5 Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian 32,705 $62.47K 0.97% 0.10% 2026-06-30
6 LMR Partners LLP 21,727 $41.50K 0.64% 0.07% 2026-06-30
7 Neuberger Berman Group LLC 19,937 $38.08K 0.59% 0.06% 2026-06-30
8 Geode Capital Management, LLC Custodian 18,716 $35.75K 0.55% 0.06% 2026-06-30
9 TWO SIGMA SECURITIES, LLC 17,182 $32.82K 0.51% 0.05% 2026-06-30
10 Royal Bank of Canada Custodian 6,000 $11.00K 0.17% 0.02% 2026-06-30
11 Groupe la Francaise 1,427 $2.73K 0.04% <0.01% 2026-06-30
12 CREDIT INDUSTRIEL ET COMMERCIAL 856 $1.64K 0.03% <0.01% 2026-06-30
13 UBS Group AG Custodian 200 $382 <0.01% <0.01% 2026-06-30
14 JPMorgan Chase & Co Custodian 96 $150 <0.01% <0.01% 2026-06-30
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period
ETF Holders
# ETF Provider Weight $ Exposure ETF AUM As Of
Fundamentals

Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.

Metrics
  • Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
  • Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
  • Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
  • Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
  • Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
  • YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
  • Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
  • Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.

TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.

Trailing P/E
—
TTM Diluted EPS
—
TTM Revenue
—
TTM Net Income
—
TTM Op. Cash Flow
—
Quarterly figures (4 quarters)
QuarterPeriod EndRevenueNet IncomeDiluted EPSOp. Cash Flow
Q4 '252025-12-31————
Q4 '242024-12-31————
Q4 '232023-12-31————
Q4 '222022-12-31————
Q4 2025 • period ending 2025-12-31 • filed 2026-04-30
Short Interest & Float

Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.

Metric definitions
  • Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
  • SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
  • Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
  • Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
  • Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
  • Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
  • SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
  • 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
  • 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
  • >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
  • Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
  • Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
  • A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.

Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.

Short Interest
13.35K
SI % of Float
0.02%
Days to Cover
2.09
Short Vol Ratio
17.2%
Free Float
62.55M
Float %
37.7%
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-19 • Float 2026-08-14