What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 22, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 22, 2026 (9d) All outcomes: Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams

chance of YES18%

Price range (120d)

42–42%

24h volume

—

$1 contracts

Open interest

520

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Not enough trading history to chart yet.

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.