What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 14%, implying a 14% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 22, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 22, 2026 (9d) All outcomes: Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams

chance of YES14%

Price range (120d)

11–31%

24h volume

—

$1 contracts

Open interest

325

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.