What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 8%, implying a 8% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Sep 30, 8:38 AM ET	YES	49¢	4,221	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.