What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 78%, implying a 78% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 03, 2027 (368d) All outcomes: Arizona's 1st District margin of victory Polls & election odds

chance of YES78%

Price range (120d)

81–81%

24h volume

1.2K

$1 contracts

Open interest

1.2K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Not enough trading history to chart yet.

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.