What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Entertainment

The Black Ball

Closes Dec 31, 2027 (471d) 24h volume 46.9K Open interest 269.1K Event Oscar Winner: Best Picture

12%

implied YES probability

+2.5pp 24h

Last 81 days · High 13% · Low 3% · 7d +9.1pp · 30d +20.0pp

Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 11.5¢

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.