What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Entertainment

The Black Ball

Closes Dec 31, 2027 (516d) 24h volume 30 Open interest 76.2K Event Oscar winner: Best Picture

implied YES probability

-1.0pp 24h

Last 59 days · High 10% · Low 3% · 7d -20.0pp · 30d 0.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.