What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 94%, implying a 94% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 15, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Dec 15, 2026 (45d) All outcomes: Paper price index in November 2026

chance of YES94% +2.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

76–95%

· 7d +8 pts

24h volume

6.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

11.4K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$16K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 31, 4:51 AM ET	YES	93¢	2,100	$2K
Oct 31, 4:45 AM ET	YES	92¢	2,482	$2K
Oct 27, 12:00 AM ET	YES	91¢	1,940	$2K
Oct 26, 11:59 PM ET	YES	91¢	3,500	$3K
Oct 21, 6:35 PM ET	YES	94¢	1,410	$1K
Oct 18, 10:34 PM ET	YES	85¢	6,572	$6K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.