What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 15, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Dec 15, 2026 (45d) All outcomes: Paper price index in November 2026

chance of YES4% -1.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

2–11%

24h volume

26.8K

$1 contracts

Open interest

21.4K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$26K

0% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 31, 4:41 AM ET	NO	98¢	1,250	$1K
Oct 31, 4:41 AM ET	NO	98¢	2,128	$2K
Oct 31, 4:41 AM ET	NO	96¢	23,415	$22K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.