kalshi
Elections
Will Barack Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
Barack Obama
0%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 75 days ·
High 0% ·
Low 0%
· 7d +50.0pp
· 30d +50.0pp
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market is currently indicating a 0% probability that Barack Obama will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028. This assessment is informed by the fact that Obama has not announced his candidacy and would be well past the typical age of first-time presidential candidates at the time of the election. The current price implies that the market does not consider him a viable contender for the nomination. Any developments that would increase the likelihood of Obama's candidacy, such as an announcement or significant endorsements, could potentially drive the YES price upward. Conversely, if other Democratic politicians announce their candidacies or gain momentum in the primary process, this could further reduce the probability and lower the YES price.
Generated Jul 29, 2026
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2¢ | 153 | 0.3¢ | 24341 | |
| 0.1¢ | 1010029 | 0.4¢ | 52122 | |
| 0.5¢ | 55100 | |||
| 0.6¢ | 29 | |||
| 0.7¢ | 100 |
Spread 0.1¢ · Mid 0.2¢
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.