kalshi Elections

Will Barack Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Barack Obama
Closes Nov 07, 2028 (826d) 24h volume 3 Open interest 2.7M Event 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
0%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 75 days · High 0% · Low 0% · 7d +50.0pp · 30d +50.0pp
0%0%

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently indicating a 0% probability that Barack Obama will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028. This assessment is informed by the fact that Obama has not announced his candidacy and would be well past the typical age of first-time presidential candidates at the time of the election. The current price implies that the market does not consider him a viable contender for the nomination. Any developments that would increase the likelihood of Obama's candidacy, such as an announcement or significant endorsements, could potentially drive the YES price upward. Conversely, if other Democratic politicians announce their candidacies or gain momentum in the primary process, this could further reduce the probability and lower the YES price.
Generated Jul 29, 2026

Top of book

BidSizeAskSize
0.2¢ 153 0.3¢ 24341
0.1¢ 1010029 0.4¢ 52122
0.5¢ 55100
0.6¢ 29
0.7¢ 100
Spread 0.1¢ · Mid 0.2¢

Trade on Kalshi

Open on Kalshi
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.