What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 80%, implying a 80% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 21, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 70

chance of YES80% -3.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

71–87%

30d -4 pts · 7d +0 pts

24h volume

5.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

12.2K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$1K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 1, 8:43 AM ET	YES	83¢	1,500	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.