What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 50%, implying a 50% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 11, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 11, 2026 (0d) All outcomes: What will Trump say in November?

chance of YES50%

Price range (120d)

99–99%

· 7d +0 pts

24h volume

—

$1 contracts

Open interest

9.6K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$5K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

UFC100%200

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET	YES	99¢	2,001	$2K
Nov 9, 10:00 AM ET	YES	99¢	1,341	$1K
Nov 1, 10:26 PM ET	YES	99¢	1,388	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.