What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 8%, implying a 8% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket World

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

December 31

Closes Jun 30, 2026 (12d) 24h volume $8.8K Open interest $1.5M Event Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

implied YES probability

-1.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 90 days · High 30% · Low 8% · 7d -19.1pp · 30d -32.0pp

How this market resolves

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.