What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketWorld

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

chance of YES4% +1.1pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

3–6%

30d +0 pts · 7d +3 pts

24h volume

$18.6K

USDC traded

Open interest

$607.0K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

June 300%—

January 310%—

March 310%—

February 280%—

April 300%—

May 310%—

How it settles

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.