P PolymarketEconomy & Fed

Will annual inflation be 3.5% in October?

Settles Nov 11, 2026 (10d) All outcomes: October Inflation US - Annual

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Theme
Preview
chance of YES1%
Price range (120d)
0–4%
· 7d +109 pts
24h volume
$116
USDC traded
Open interest
$5.5K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

3.7%91%$1.6K
3.8%4%$358
4.0%2%$116
3.9%2%$166
3.6%1%$392
≥4.3%1%$221
4.2%1%$116
3.4%0%$194

How it settles

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.