What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 24%, implying a 24% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket World

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

Lebanon

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (174d) 24h volume $68 Open interest $73.1K Event Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

24%

implied YES probability

+0.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 39 days · High 64% · Low 12% · 7d -26.6pp · 30d +20.5pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.