Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
50/50 line14%Venezuela
Line nearest 50/50
14%
Runner-up
8%
Biggest 24h move
—
24h volume
$2K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noOdds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
All outcomes
16| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | 14% | +1.0 | $232 | $121K |
| Lebanon | 8% | -2.0 | $194 | $121K |
| Pakistan | 6% | — | $50 | $121K |
| Tunisia | 6% | — | $50 | $121K |
| Iraq | 5% | — | $90 | $121K |
| Indonesia | 5% | — | $91 | $121K |
| Saudi Arabia | 4% | -0.5 | $136 | $121K |
| Syria | 4% | — | $74 | $121K |
| Iran | 3% | — | $268 | $121K |
| North Korea | 3% | — | $208 | $121K |
| Cuba | 3% | — | $316 | $121K |
| Kuwait | 3% | — | $167 | $121K |
| Qatar | 3% | — | $100 | $121K |
| Malaysia | 3% | — | $239 | $121K |
| Afghanistan | 2% | — | $92 | $121K |
| Bangladesh | 1% | — | $177 | $121K |
How it settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.