What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 3%, implying a 3% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketWorld

Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

chance of YES3%

Price range (120d)

2–10%

30d +8 pts · 7d +0 pts

24h volume

$100

USDC traded

Open interest

$120.8K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Venezuela14%$228

Lebanon8%$194

Pakistan6%$50

Tunisia6%$50

Iraq5%$90

Indonesia5%$91

Saudi Arabia4%$136

Syria4%$74

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.