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Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

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chance of YES0%
Price range (120d)
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24h volume
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USDC traded
Open interest
$125.9K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
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none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Not enough trading history to chart yet.

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

How it settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.