What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketWorld

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

chance of YES2% -3.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

2–6%

30d -32 pts · 7d -65 pts

24h volume

$30.0K

USDC traded

Open interest

$65.8K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Embed these odds

Odds and volume

How it settles

Related news