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Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $557 Open interest $27.3K Event Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
4%
implied YES probability
+0.9pp 24h

Price history

Last 89 days · High 11% · Low 2% · 7d -33.7pp · 30d -46.9pp
11%2%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.