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Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?

Settles Jul 01, 2027 (242d) All outcomes: Next Israeli government formed by...?

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chance of YES43% -1.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
39–60%
24h volume
$4.8K
USDC traded
Open interest
$22.4K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.