US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market is currently indicating a 0% probability that the US will obtain Iranian enriched uranium by June 30, 2026. This assessment is based on known facts, including the ongoing diplomatic efforts and sanctions imposed on Iran, which have thus far hindered any significant progress towards achieving this goal. The current price of the YES outcome implies that market participants do not foresee a high likelihood of the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by the specified deadline. Any developments that could alter this assessment would include breakthroughs in negotiations or changes in international pressure that might prompt Iran to reconsider its stance on sharing its enriched uranium resources with the US. Conversely, any further escalation of tensions or lack of progress in talks would likely reinforce the current market price and maintain a low probability of the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by June 30.