HARD · Expected Move
Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF · ETF
The expected move for HARD is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing — the market's implied one-standard-deviation move through the next 30 days. Comparing it to realized moves reveals when options are pricing in too much (premium-selling regime) vs too little (premium-buying regime).
HARD straddle price & implied vol
60 sessionsBars: at-the-money straddle price (30-day and 7-day) — the market's priced move. Line: 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (right axis).
Current HARD Expected Move
30-Day Straddle
$3.55
7-Day Straddle
$3.55
30-Day ATM IV
56.9%
IV Rank
60%
Implied one-standard-deviation move through the next 30 days. Compare to HARD's realized
move over the same window to gauge whether options are pricing in too much (premium-selling regime)
or too little (premium-buying regime). The
Expected Move Tracker ranks every symbol by
this measure.
HARD Straddle Price — Last 60 Days
| Date | 30D Straddle | 7D Straddle | ATM IV | IV Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20261022 | $3.55 | $3.55 | 56.9% | 60% |
| 20261021 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 57.3% | 61% |
| 20261020 | $1.90 | $1.90 | 56.3% | 59% |
| 20261019 | $1.75 | $1.75 | 56.7% | 59% |
| 20261016 | $3.70 | $6.10 | 55.6% | 57% |
| 20261015 | $3.90 | $2.55 | 54.7% | 56% |
| 20261014 | $3.95 | $2.60 | 51.4% | 50% |
| 20261013 | $4.10 | $2.73 | 50.5% | 48% |
| 20261012 | $4.05 | $2.83 | 51.2% | 49% |
| 20261009 | $4.20 | $2.88 | 63.7% | 72% |
| 20261008 | $4.35 | $2.98 | 60.9% | 67% |
| 20261007 | $4.25 | $2.98 | 70.5% | 85% |
| 20261006 | $4.30 | $3.10 | 69.1% | 83% |
| 20261005 | $4.30 | $3.25 | 69.6% | 83% |
| 20261002 | $3.17 | $3.17 | 66.2% | 77% |
| 20261001 | $3.40 | $3.40 | 64.8% | 75% |
| 20260930 | $3.45 | $3.45 | 67.8% | 80% |
| 20260929 | $3.60 | $3.60 | 70.1% | 84% |
| 20260928 | $3.55 | $3.55 | 66.2% | 77% |
| 20260925 | $3.60 | $3.60 | 75.0% | 94% |
| 20260924 | $4.10 | $4.10 | 59.3% | 64% |
| 20260923 | $3.90 | $3.90 | 59.8% | 65% |
| 20260922 | $4.05 | $4.05 | 68.5% | 81% |
| 20260921 | $4.05 | $4.05 | 64.7% | 74% |
| 20260918 | $4.15 | $9.50 | 61.2% | 68% |
| 20260917 | $4.25 | $2.80 | 59.9% | 66% |
| 20260916 | $4.35 | $3.08 | 51.5% | 50% |
| 20260915 | $6.60 | $2.80 | 46.7% | 41% |
| 20260914 | $3.30 | $2.60 | 46.8% | 41% |
| 20260911 | $3.60 | $2.83 | 51.4% | 50% |
| 20260910 | $3.75 | $2.92 | 68.9% | 82% |
| 20260909 | $3.80 | $2.95 | 66.5% | 78% |
| 20260908 | $3.75 | $3.05 | 47.1% | 42% |
| 20260904 | $3.95 | $3.10 | 52.2% | 51% |
| 20260903 | $3.90 | $3.10 | 51.1% | 49% |
| 20260902 | $3.12 | $3.12 | 47.2% | 42% |
| 20260901 | $3.08 | $3.08 | 73.0% | 90% |
| 20260831 | $3.08 | $3.08 | 40.8% | 30% |
| 20260828 | $3.03 | $3.03 | 40.6% | 30% |
| 20260827 | $2.83 | $2.83 | 40.5% | 30% |
| 20260826 | $2.85 | $2.85 | 45.0% | 38% |
| 20260825 | $2.95 | $2.95 | 47.8% | 43% |
| 20260824 | $2.85 | $2.85 | 38.5% | 26% |
| 20260821 | $3.02 | $6.42 | 39.4% | 28% |
| 20260820 | $3.02 | $2.58 | 39.6% | 28% |
| 20260819 | $2.92 | $2.42 | 40.4% | 29% |
| 20260818 | $3.03 | $2.60 | 39.5% | 28% |
| 20260817 | $2.92 | $2.58 | 38.7% | 26% |
| 20260814 | $2.98 | $1.10 | 37.1% | 23% |
| 20260813 | $2.98 | $2.60 | 38.8% | 26% |
| 20260812 | $3.15 | $1.30 | 35.4% | 20% |
| 20260811 | $1.88 | $1.43 | 35.1% | 20% |
| 20260810 | $2.20 | $1.40 | 35.0% | 19% |
| 20260807 | — | — | 39.0% | 27% |
| 20260806 | $2.00 | $1.60 | 39.7% | 28% |
| 20260805 | $1.60 | $1.60 | 37.6% | 24% |
| 20260804 | $1.52 | $1.52 | 38.3% | 26% |
| 20260803 | $1.68 | $1.68 | 40.6% | 30% |
| 20260731 | $1.62 | $1.62 | 32.5% | 15% |
| 20260730 | $1.75 | $1.75 | 34.6% | 19% |
More on HARD
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.