HODL · Expected Move
VanEck Bitcoin ETF · ETF
The expected move for HODL is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing — the market's implied one-standard-deviation move through the next 30 days. Comparing it to realized moves reveals when options are pricing in too much (premium-selling regime) vs too little (premium-buying regime).
HODL straddle price & implied vol
60 sessionsBars: at-the-money straddle price (30-day and 7-day) — the market's priced move. Line: 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (right axis).
Current HODL Expected Move
30-Day Straddle
$2.35
7-Day Straddle
$2.35
30-Day ATM IV
—
IV Rank
—
Implied one-standard-deviation move through the next 30 days. Compare to HODL's realized
move over the same window to gauge whether options are pricing in too much (premium-selling regime)
or too little (premium-buying regime). The
Expected Move Tracker ranks every symbol by
this measure.
HODL Straddle Price — Last 60 Days
| Date | 30D Straddle | 7D Straddle | ATM IV | IV Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20261021 | $2.35 | $2.35 | — | — |
| 20261020 | $2.25 | $2.25 | 39.0% | 31% |
| 20261019 | $2.28 | $2.28 | 40.8% | 38% |
| 20261016 | $2.08 | $0.45 | — | — |
| 20261015 | $2.33 | $0.90 | — | — |
| 20261014 | $2.27 | $0.88 | — | — |
| 20261013 | $2.30 | $0.72 | 37.4% | 24% |
| 20261012 | $2.35 | $1.20 | 39.3% | 32% |
| 20261009 | $2.27 | $1.12 | 40.3% | 36% |
| 20261008 | $2.45 | $0.97 | 38.7% | 30% |
| 20261007 | $2.50 | $1.18 | 37.7% | 26% |
| 20261006 | $2.60 | $1.40 | 38.1% | 27% |
| 20261005 | $2.62 | $1.27 | 37.4% | 24% |
| 20261002 | $1.40 | $1.40 | 41.9% | 42% |
| 20261001 | $1.52 | $1.52 | 39.3% | 32% |
| 20260930 | $1.48 | $1.48 | — | — |
| 20260929 | $1.65 | $1.65 | 36.2% | 20% |
| 20260928 | $1.60 | $1.60 | 39.1% | 31% |
| 20260925 | $2.10 | $2.10 | 44.6% | 52% |
| 20260924 | $1.77 | $1.77 | 38.7% | 29% |
| 20260923 | $1.92 | $1.92 | 39.8% | 34% |
| 20260922 | $2.02 | $2.02 | 41.1% | 39% |
| 20260921 | $2.22 | $2.22 | 41.4% | 40% |
| 20260918 | $1.85 | $0.93 | — | — |
| 20260917 | $1.80 | $0.80 | 40.1% | 35% |
| 20260916 | $1.88 | $1.02 | 40.0% | 35% |
| 20260915 | $2.03 | $1.27 | 40.9% | 38% |
| 20260914 | $2.12 | $1.07 | 39.5% | 32% |
| 20260911 | $2.20 | $1.25 | 41.4% | 40% |
| 20260910 | $2.15 | $1.20 | 39.1% | 31% |
| 20260909 | $2.27 | $1.23 | 42.1% | 43% |
| 20260908 | $2.40 | $1.60 | 43.0% | 46% |
| 20260904 | $2.58 | $1.48 | 40.2% | 35% |
| 20260903 | $2.85 | $1.85 | 46.0% | 58% |
| 20260902 | $1.52 | $1.52 | 41.1% | 39% |
| 20260901 | $1.77 | $1.77 | 41.2% | 39% |
| 20260831 | $1.57 | $1.57 | 39.9% | 34% |
| 20260828 | $1.75 | $1.75 | 40.6% | 37% |
| 20260827 | $1.92 | $1.92 | — | — |
| 20260826 | $1.85 | $1.85 | 41.6% | 41% |
| 20260825 | $1.80 | $1.80 | 41.4% | 40% |
| 20260824 | $2.35 | $2.35 | 47.5% | 64% |
| 20260821 | $2.10 | $0.72 | 43.5% | 48% |
| 20260820 | $2.00 | $0.85 | 39.5% | 33% |
| 20260819 | $1.62 | $0.88 | 36.6% | 21% |
| 20260818 | $1.43 | $1.73 | 32.7% | 6% |
| 20260817 | $1.75 | $1.80 | 39.9% | 34% |
| 20260814 | $1.35 | $2.95 | 31.1% | 0% |
| 20260813 | $1.73 | $0.70 | 38.4% | 15% |
| 20260812 | $1.90 | $0.95 | 41.2% | 26% |
| 20260811 | $1.55 | $1.05 | 34.8% | 0% |
| 20260810 | $1.73 | $1.15 | 38.1% | 9% |
| 20260807 | — | — | 38.6% | 10% |
| 20260806 | $2.65 | $1.00 | 43.7% | 27% |
| 20260805 | $1.10 | $1.10 | 37.0% | 5% |
| 20260804 | $1.05 | $1.05 | 40.5% | 16% |
| 20260803 | $1.25 | $1.25 | 36.8% | 4% |
| 20260731 | $1.25 | $1.25 | 38.1% | 8% |
| 20260730 | $1.32 | $1.32 | 41.5% | 20% |
| 20260729 | $1.55 | $1.55 | 40.7% | 17% |
More on HODL
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