MPL Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MP ETF
ETFETF quote, holdings, sector allocation, technicals, and options analytics. Fibonacci levels
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Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MP ETF (MPL) ETF
No description available.
- Exchange
- ARCX
- Inception
- 2025-10-20
- Has Options
- No
| Symbol | Name | Weight % | Asset Class | Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | TREASURY BILL | 29.66% | Debt | US |
| — | N/A | 2.75% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | First American Government Obli | 2.13% | Short-term investment | US |
| — | N/A | 1.24% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | N/A | -5.23% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | N/A | -6.64% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | N/A | -8.88% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | N/A | -12.06% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| Category | Weight | Value | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasury | 29.66% | $698320 | 1 |
| Short-term investment | 2.13% | $50146 | 1 |
| Derivative (equity) | -28.81% | $-678305 | 6 |
| Month | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -- | 7.28% | 7.28% |
| Feb | -- | -5.71% | -5.71% |
| Mar | -- | -46.24% | -46.24% |
| Apr | -- | 75.18% | 75.18% |
| May | -- | -10.53% | -10.53% |
| Jun | -- | -38.33% | -38.33% |
| Jul | -- | -46.66% | -46.66% |
| Aug | -- | 73.72% | 73.72% |
| Sep | -- | -- | -- |
| Oct | -29.06% | --* | -29.06% |
| Nov | 6.37% | -- | 6.37% |
| Dec | -27.25% | -- | -27.25% |
| Total | -45.10% | -51.29% | -48.20% |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
Here is the stock analysis report for MPL:
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL (confidence level 6/10)
Key Drivers:
- Trend direction: Mixed signals, with short-term momentum indicators favoring a bullish trend
- Support/Resistance Levels: Critical levels include $23.22 (SMA 20), $21.87 (EMA 26), and $16.59 (Bollinger Bands Lower)
Primary Risks:
- High volatility, which may lead to increased price fluctuations
- Unconfirmed uptrend, with mixed signals from momentum indicators
Recent News Sentiment Impact: No recent news available, so no impact on analysis
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term (1-4 weeks): Bullish, with MACD and RSI indicating a potential uptrend
- Medium-term (1-3 months): Neutral, with mixed signals from moving averages and momentum indicators
- Long-term (3-12 months): Bearish, due to the stock's high volatility and lack of sustained momentum
Support/Resistance Levels:
- SMA 20: $23.22 - key support level
- EMA 26: $21.87 - key resistance level
- Bollinger Bands Lower: $16.59 - critical support level
Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: Neutral (53.09), with no clear buy or sell signal
- MACD signal: Bullish, indicating a potential uptrend
- Bollinger Bands position: Neutral, with the stock trading within the bands
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 46143.05 - moderate volume
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): -867569.58 - negative OBV, suggesting selling pressure
- Volume Rate of Change: 29.75% - high volume growth rate
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: No recent news available
Sentiment Assessment: Neutral sentiment due to lack of recent news
Catalyst Identification: No upcoming events or earnings releases that could impact the stock's price
Market Narrative: The market narrative is unclear, with mixed signals from momentum indicators and no recent news available
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk Interpretation: High risk, with a beta of 1.33 and high volatility
Volatility Regime: Current volatility regime is high, with an HV20 of 142.2%
Options Market Signals: No options data available for analysis
Downside Protection: Support levels include $23.22 (SMA 20), $21.87 (EMA 26), and $16.59 (Bollinger Bands Lower)
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: MPL's sector performance is neutral, with no clear outperformance or underperformance
Institutional Activity: No recent institutional activity data available for analysis
Correlation Analysis: MPL's correlation with the market is low, at 0.06
Relative Valuation: MPL's relative valuation is fair, with a beta of 1.33 and moderate volatility
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- $23.22 (SMA 20) - key support level
- $21.87 (EMA 26) - key resistance level
- $16.59 (Bollinger Bands Lower) - critical support level
Breakout/Breakdown Levels: No clear breakout or breakdown levels available for analysis
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: No upcoming events or earnings releases that could impact the stock's price
Risk Management: Consider stop-loss levels at $20.11 (SMA 50) and position sizing considerations based on volatility and risk tolerance
MPL Options Activity & IV Rank
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
Risk Metrics
Analysis Details
Data Points: 212
Period: 252 trading days
High volatility - stock moves more than market
MPL Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-06-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
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| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
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