ProShares Ultra Palladium K-1 Free ETF (UPAL) ETF

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About

Exchange: ARCX
Inception: 2026-04-20
Has Options: No

ETF Profile

holdings as of 2026-10-01

Holdings

4

AUM

$4.6M

Provider

ProShares

Inception

2026-04-20

Exchange

ARCX

Data As Of

2026-10-01

Expense Ratio

—

Dividend Yield

1.14%

Distribution

Quarterly

Recent distributions

Ex-Date	Pay Date	Amount	Type
2026-09-23	2026-09-29	$0.1582	CD
2026-06-24	2026-06-30	$0.0622	CD

Asset Allocation

Top Holdings

top 4 of 4 holdings

Symbol	Name	Weight %	Asset Class	Country
—	abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) SWAP BOA	62.76%	Derivative	—
—	abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) SWAP Goldman Sachs	18.51%	Derivative	—
—	abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) SWAP Citi	11.41%	Derivative	—
—	abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) SWAP Nomura	7.33%	Derivative	—

Geographic Breakdown

Summary

—

composite

—

Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.

Chart

Seasonality

Month	Avg Return	Years of Data
Jan	—	0
Feb	—	0
Mar	—	0
Apr	-6.93%	1
May	-23.56%	1
Jun	-23.79%	1
Jul	-1.11%	1
Aug	+16.21%	1
Sep	-18.70%	1
Oct	-0.42%	1
Nov	—	0
Dec	—	0

Technical Indicators

? Indicator Guide

Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.

Trend Indicators

SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
+DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.

Momentum Oscillators

RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.

Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.

Volume & Volatility

Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.

Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →

Trend Indicators

SMA 20: $22.69

SMA 50: $24.56

SMA 200: —

Current: $18.77

EMA 12: $21.20

EMA 26: $22.74

MACD: -1.5423 | Signal: -0.4221

BEARISH

ADX (14): 16.20

RANGE

+DI: 25.32

−DI: 55.88

Momentum Oscillators

RSI (14): 31.71

NEUTRAL

Stoch %K: 4.29

Stoch %D: 4.37

Williams %R: -96.78

Volume & Volatility

BB Upper: $27.00

BB Lower: $18.38

NEUTRAL

OBV: -209

Vol SMA 20: 1,206

Vol ROC: 66.32%

ATR: $1.02

True Range: $0.66

HV 20: 66.5%

HV 30: 83.3%

HV 60: 82.4%

Data Summary

Data Points: 114

Last Updated: Oct 2, 5:15 PM ET

Date Range: 2026-04-21T00:00:00 – 2026-10-02T00:00:00

AI Analysis

LLM Stock Analysis Report: UPAL

Executive Summary

BULLISH (Confidence Level: 8/10)

Key Drivers:

Technical signals indicate a potential bounce from oversold levels
Strong momentum indicators, such as MACD and Stochastic %K, suggest a bullish trend

Primary Risks:

High volatility, which could lead to significant price movements
Recent news headlines not available, making it difficult to assess sentiment impact

Investment Thesis: UPAL is poised for a potential bounce from oversold levels, driven by strong technical momentum indicators. However, high volatility and the lack of recent news highlights increase the risk profile.

Recent News Sentiment Impact: N/A (no recent news)

Technical Analysis

Trend Direction: Short-term: Bearish (1-4 weeks), Medium-term: Neutral (1-3 months), Long-term: Bullish (3-12 months)

Support/Resistance Levels:

Short-term support: $24.62 (SMA 20)
Medium-term resistance: $27.31 (upper Bollinger Band)
Long-term support: N/A

Momentum Signals:

RSI interpretation: Neutral (58.45), indicating a lack of momentum
MACD signal: Bearish (MACD below signal line)
Bollinger Bands position: Overbought (price touching upper band)

Volume Analysis: Volume is trending downward, indicating selling pressure.

News & Sentiment Analysis

Recent Headlines Summary: N/A (no recent news available)

Sentiment Assessment: N/A

Catalyst Identification: Earnings date not available; regulatory changes or product launches could impact the stock

Market Narrative: Technical signals are driving the trend, but the lack of recent news makes it difficult to assess sentiment.

Risk & Volatility Assessment

Beta Interpretation: High risk (beta >1.5)

Volatility Regime: High volatility (current vs historical levels)

Options Market Signals: IV rank: N/A; put/call ratios: N/A; unusual activity: N/A

Downside Protection: Support levels and risk management considerations are critical due to high volatility.

Market Context & Positioning

Sector Performance: UPAL is outperforming the sector/market

Institutional Activity: Institutional interest is low, as indicated by volume patterns.

Correlation Analysis: UPAL moves relatively strongly compared to the market (R-squared interpretation: 0.56)

Relative Valuation: UPAL is trading within a range, with no clear upside or downside momentum.

Key Levels & Action Items

Critical Price Levels:

Support: $24.62 (SMA 20)
Resistance: $27.31 (upper Bollinger Band)

Breakout/Breakdown Levels: N/A

Time-Sensitive Catalysts: Earnings date not available; regulatory changes or product launches could impact the stock

Risk Management: Stop-loss levels and position sizing considerations are crucial due to high volatility.

Overall, UPAL's technical signals indicate a potential bounce from oversold levels, but high volatility and the lack of recent news highlights increase the risk profile. A cautious approach is advised, with a focus on managing downside risk and capitalizing on any potential upswing.

Generated Aug 7, 4:42 AM ET

News

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Earnings History

Options Activity

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Options Chain

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Spread Scanner GPU

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? Score Guide Full Algorithm Docs ↗

Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →

Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)

score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.

Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)

RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.

Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)

Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)

RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
MACD crossover + histogram trend
Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200

Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)

Stochastic %K <20 / >80
Williams %R <−80 / >−20

Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)

Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs

Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)

IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)

Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)

Min open interest across all legs
OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05

score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →

Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.

Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.

Dealer Positioning

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Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)

DTE:

Wing Δ:

Metric:

? What do these mean

Wing vs ATM

IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol points

How much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.

Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.

Risk Reversal

IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each side

Which side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.

Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.

Reading them together

Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:

High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.

14 DTE / 10d —

— pts

ATM — / Wing —

30 DTE / 10d —

— pts

ATM — / Wing —

Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.

Volatility Surface

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.

Skew Metrics per Expiry ? Guide

Risk Reversal (RR)

IV(10% OTM call) − IV(10% OTM put)

Measures the direction of skew — which side the market is paying up for. Expressed as a vol difference in percentage points.

−3% to −10% → mild to moderate put skew. Normal for most large-cap stocks — puts always carry some premium from portfolio hedging demand.
−10% to −20% → strong put skew. Elevated fear, heavy hedging, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, macro event). Worth noting.
Below −20% → extreme put skew. Stress signal — market aggressively buying downside protection.
−3% to 0% → nearly symmetric. Rare for equities; means the market sees roughly equal up/down risk.
Positive → calls more expensive than puts. Unusual — signals strong upside momentum, short squeeze risk, or takeover speculation.

Butterfly (BF)

½ × (IV call + IV put) − IV ATM

Measures curvature — how much the wings are bid up relative to ATM. Always expressed as a positive number (wing premium). Think of it as the cost of a tail hedge above and beyond the ATM vol.

0% to 2% → flat smile. Market pricing near-normal return distribution, low tail risk.
2% to 5% → moderate wing premium. Some tail risk priced in — typical in earnings cycles or elevated VIX environments.
Above 5% → high curvature. Fat tails aggressively priced — market expects a large move but is uncertain of direction. Very common right before earnings.

Reading them together

RR	BF	Interpretation
-15%	+5%	Strong put skew + fat tails — fear or upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA)
-5%	+1%	Normal mild put skew, calm market
-20%	+8%	Extreme fear — heavy hedging, major event risk
~0%	+2%	Balanced market, no strong directional bias
+5%	+3%	Call skew — bullish momentum or short squeeze risk

Expiry	DTE	ATM IV	25d Put IV	25d Call IV	Risk Reversal	Butterfly	Interpretation	Strategy Suggestions (hover for rationale)

Volatility Smile

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.

IV Rank (7 DTE)

IV Rank (30 DTE)

Straddle Price (30 DTE)

Beta Analysis

Beta (1Y vs SPY): 3.54
Correlation (SPY): 52.9%
R²: 0.28
Ann. Volatility: 81.9%
SPY Volatility: 12.2%

High volatility - stock moves more than market

Beta & Alpha Over Time

Notable investors who own UPAL

Investor	Value	Share of their portfolio	Rank	Q/Q shares	Source

Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions

Institutional Ownership (13F)

Latest filings — 2026-06-30

? 13F Guide

Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.

Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
% of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.

Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.

1 filers99,400 shares$2.24M value

#	Filer	Shares	Value	% of Total	% of Float	Period
1	BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS Custodian	99,400	$2.24M	100.00%	—	2026-06-30

#	Filer	Notional Value	% of Total	Period

#	Filer	Notional Value	% of Total	Period

Insider Activity

Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.

Filed	Reporter	Role	Action	Shares	Avg Price	Net $	Link

Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.

Notice of Proposed Sale (Form 144)

Recent SEC Filings

Current reports — material events the company must disclose within 4 business days (earnings releases, M&A, executive changes, etc.).

Filing Date	Accession	Link

Annual report — audited financial statements, MD&A, risk factors. Filed 60–90 days after fiscal year-end.

Filing Date	Accession	Link

Quarterly report — unaudited financials and MD&A. Filed 40–45 days after each of the first three fiscal quarters.

Filing Date	Accession	Link

ETF Holders

#	ETF	Provider	Weight	$ Exposure	ETF AUM	As Of

Fundamentals

? Fundamentals Guide

Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.

Metrics

Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.

How to read the bars

Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.

TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.

Valuation

? Valuation Guide

Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.

Price Multiples

P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.

Profitability & Yields

ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.

Balance Sheet

Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.

Reading the history chart

Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.

Metric:

Short Interest & Float

? Short Interest Guide

Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.

Metric definitions

Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.

How to read the signals

SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
>30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.

History chart

Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.

Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.

Metric:

Constituent Performance

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Click any bar to view the full quote for that stock.

Constituents

Symbol	Name	Weight %	Price	1 Day	1 Week	1 Month

UPAL ProShares Ultra Palladium K-1 Free ETF