Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock(UPST)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $23.96 – $87.30
- YTD
- -33.09%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 3.0
- Straddle Price
- $5.30
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.54
- Market Cap
- $2.9B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.53% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.80% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.73% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +8.4pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +27bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 1.6% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +15.1% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.10 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.3B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 6.7% |
| Book / Price | 22.1% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 100.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | -28.3% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.05 |
| Quality Score | 3/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $30.40 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $30.59 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 72.8% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.4B |
| Market Cap | $3B |
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | +0.8% | +1.16 | +1.74 | 92.7% | — |
| 42d | +0.2% | +1.10 | +1.71 | 90.8% | — |
| 63d | +4.9% | +1.76 | +2.04 | 95.3% | ACTIVE |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | $19.16 | 16% | median 45.8× · 4 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 37.1× · 3 peers |
| Peer P/B | $39.10 | 16% | median 5.6× · 7 peers |
| Peer P/S | $160.05 | 16% | median 15.2× · 8 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $30.40 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $33.87 | 53% | 24 strikes · skew +0.28 |
- Industry (SIC)
- FINANCE SERVICES (6199)
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $2.9B
Upstart Holdings Inc provides credit services. The company provides a proprietary, cloud-based, artificial intelligence lending platform. The platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to the network of Upstart AI-enabled bank partners. The company support development of different lending product offerings, which are grouped into three operating segments - Personal Lending (unsecured personal loans and small dollar loans), Auto Lending (auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loans), and Other (HELOCs and other).
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +5.95% | 6 |
| Feb | +0.93% | 6 |
| Mar | +2.77% | 6 |
| Apr | -8.95% | 6 |
| May | +18.38% | 6 |
| Jun | -0.24% | 6 |
| Jul | +22.20% | 5 |
| Aug | +17.84% | 5 |
| Sep | -4.43% | 5 |
| Oct | +1.00% | 5 |
| Nov | +1.65% | 5 |
| Dec | +5.47% | 6 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-06 | After-Close | 20.62% | 17.48% | 0.85x | Within |
| 2024-11-07 | After-Close | 21.33% | 26.23% | 1.23x | Exceeded |
| 2025-02-11 | After-Close | 24.42% | 6.40% | 0.26x | Within |
| 2025-05-06 | After-Close | 20.08% | 9.98% | 0.50x | Within |
| 2025-08-05 | After-Close | 18.34% | 26.31% | 1.43x | Exceeded |
| 2025-11-04 | After-Close | 18.39% | 4.35% | 0.24x | Within |
| 2026-02-10 | After-Close | 16.69% | 15.90% | 0.95x | Within |
| 2026-05-05 | After-Close | 15.04% | 9.22% | 0.61x | Within |
- IV Rank (30D)
- 3.0
- IV Rank (7D)
- 100
- Avg IV
- 76.1%
- Straddle (30D)
- $5.30
- Straddle (7D)
- $2.47
- P/C Volume
- 0.54
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 2.86
- Correlation (SPY)
- 49.8%
- R²
- 0.25
- Ann. Volatility
- 71.0%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.3%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $195.44M | 32.46% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $119.66M | 19.87% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $96.18M | 15.97% | 2025-09-30 |
| 4 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $52.08M | 8.65% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | HSBC HOLDINGS PLC Custodian | $25.70M | 4.27% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $23.97M | 3.98% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | Cubist Systematic Strategies, LLC | $14.74M | 2.45% | 2025-09-30 |
| 8 | Caption Management, LLC | $12.82M | 2.13% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $11.62M | 1.93% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | BOOTHBAY FUND MANAGEMENT, LLC | $6.61M | 1.10% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | Walleye Trading LLC | $6.53M | 1.08% | 2026-03-31 |
| 12 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $5.19M | 0.86% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $5.13M | 0.85% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $4.49M | 0.75% | 2026-03-31 |
| 15 | CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A. | $4.48M | 0.74% | 2026-03-31 |
| 16 | BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. | $4.45M | 0.74% | 2026-03-31 |
| 17 | MARSHALL WACE, LLP Custodian | $3.26M | 0.54% | 2026-03-31 |
| 18 | MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian | $2.39M | 0.40% | 2026-03-31 |
| 19 | Interval Partners, LP | $1.65M | 0.27% | 2026-03-31 |
| 20 | Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $1.53M | 0.25% | 2026-03-31 |
| 21 | PEAK6 LLC | $1.22M | 0.20% | 2026-03-31 |
| 22 | Walleye Capital LLC | $1.17M | 0.19% | 2026-03-31 |
| 23 | TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | $759.24K | 0.13% | 2026-03-31 |
| 24 | INTERCAPITAL, LLC | $718.20K | 0.12% | 2026-03-31 |
| 25 | HAP TRADING, LLC | $165.59K | 0.03% | 2025-09-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $136.70M | 28.48% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $61.90M | 12.89% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $51.98M | 10.83% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $47.02M | 9.79% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $46.45M | 9.68% | 2025-09-30 |
| 6 | PEAK6 LLC | $26.96M | 5.62% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $19.24M | 4.01% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $10.76M | 2.24% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $10.61M | 2.21% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | BARCLAYS PLC Custodian | $9.23M | 1.92% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | Cubist Systematic Strategies, LLC | $8.31M | 1.73% | 2025-09-30 |
| 12 | Walleye Trading LLC | $8.18M | 1.70% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $5.90M | 1.23% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian | $5.66M | 1.18% | 2026-03-31 |
| 15 | CREDIT AGRICOLE S A | $4.70M | 0.98% | 2026-03-31 |
| 16 | Centiva Capital, LP | $3.61M | 0.75% | 2026-03-31 |
| 17 | BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS Custodian | $3.33M | 0.69% | 2026-03-31 |
| 18 | CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A. | $3.11M | 0.65% | 2026-03-31 |
| 19 | SANDLER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT | $2.67M | 0.56% | 2026-03-31 |
| 20 | Clear Street Group Inc. | $2.56M | 0.53% | 2026-03-31 |
| 21 | Walleye Capital LLC | $2.42M | 0.50% | 2026-03-31 |
| 22 | MARSHALL WACE, LLP Custodian | $2.36M | 0.49% | 2026-03-31 |
| 23 | BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. | $2.09M | 0.44% | 2026-03-31 |
| 24 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $1.68M | 0.35% | 2026-03-31 |
| 25 | TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | $1.39M | 0.29% | 2026-03-31 |
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Sanjay Datta | President, Capital& Enterprise | Sell (S) | −15,000 | $30.41 | -$456.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-02 | Mary Hentges | Director | Award (A) | +6,476 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-02 | Timothy H Wennes | Director | Award (A) | +6,476 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-02 | Peter J Bernard | Director | Award (A) | +6,476 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-02 | Ciaran O'Kelly | Director | Award (A) | +6,476 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-02 | Kerry Whorton Cooper | Director | Award (A) | +6,476 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-02 | Hilliard C. III Terry | Director | Award (A) | +6,476 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-27 | Natalia Mirgorodskaya | See Remarks | Sell (S) | −974 | $28.99 | -$28.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-22 | Natalia Mirgorodskaya | See Remarks | Sell (S) | −526 | $28.77 | -$15.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-22 | Scott Darling | Chief Legal Officer | Sell (S) | −6,634 | $28.78 | -$190.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-22 | Sanjay Datta | President, Capital& Enterprise | Sell (S) | −7,985 | $28.77 | -$229.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-18 | Natalia Mirgorodskaya | See Remarks | Exer (M) | +4,600 | $1.35 | $6.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-18 | Sanjay Datta | President, Capital& Enterprise | Sell (S) | −1,817 | $29.56 | -$53.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-18 | Andrea Blankmeyer | Chief Financial Officer | Sell (S) | −7,044 | $29.63 | -$208.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-18 | Scott Darling | Chief Legal Officer | Sell (S) | −727 | $29.54 | -$21.5K | EDGAR |
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Third Point LLC | 10%+ Owner | 8,815,856 | $268.88M | -$704.78M | 4 | 2021-12-03 |
| 2 | Daniel S Loeb | 10%+ Owner | 8,143,825 | $248.39M | -$1.49B | 3 | 2021-12-03 |
| 3 | Paul Gu | Chief Executive Officer | 1,147,546 | $35.00M | -$188.45M | 68 | 2026-05-14 |
| 4 | Dave Girouard | Chief Executive Officer | 599,115 | $18.27M | -$251.06M | 40 | 2026-05-08 |
| 5 | Alison Nicoll | General Counsel and Secretary | 412,983 | $12.60M | -$113.45M | 49 | 2022-06-28 |
| 6 | Sanjay Datta | President, Capital& Enterprise | 313,556 | $9.56M | -$12.96M | 100 | 2026-06-11 |
| 7 | Andrea Blankmeyer | Chief Financial Officer | 166,668 | $5.08M | -$208.7K | 2 | 2026-05-18 |
| 8 | Scott Darling | Chief Legal Officer | 128,426 | $3.92M | -$18.35M | 58 | 2026-05-22 |
| 9 | Ciaran O'Kelly | Director | 39,484 | $1.20M | $0 | 11 | 2026-06-02 |
| 10 | Hilliard C. III Terry | Director | 37,432 | $1.14M | -$15.07M | 9 | 2026-06-02 |
| 11 | Natalia Mirgorodskaya | See Remarks | 37,374 | $1.14M | -$6.55M | 60 | 2026-05-27 |
| 12 | Mary Hentges | Director | 37,149 | $1.13M | -$7.38M | 10 | 2026-06-02 |
| 13 | Kerry Whorton Cooper | Director | 34,183 | $1.04M | -$206.4K | 19 | 2026-06-02 |
| 14 | Jeff Huber | Director | 29,671 | $905.0K | $0 | 9 | 2025-05-29 |
| 15 | Anna M. Counselman | SVP, People and Operations | 19,143 | $583.9K | -$124.99M | 5 | 2022-02-23 |
| 16 | Cassidy Sukhinder Singh | Director | 14,830 | $452.3K | -$3.29M | 9 | 2024-12-03 |
| 17 | Peter J Bernard | Director | 11,392 | $347.5K | $0 | 4 | 2026-06-02 |
| 18 | Timothy H Wennes | Director | 6,476 | $197.5K | $0 | 1 | 2026-06-02 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 80.7 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.2 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | -29.0 |
| TTM Revenue | $1.0B |
| TTM Net Income | $0.0B |
| TTM EPS | $0.38 |
| ROE | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.15% |
| Debt/Equity | 2.67 |