Economic releases

Actual vs forecast for major U.S. data — every print as first published, how far it missed, and how often each indicator beats expectations.

Scorecard History Guide

Today’s releases

Live

Times ET · numbers appear here seconds after they are published

Scorecard

Latest print per indicator
IndicatorPeriodActualFcst SurpriseLast 12 Above · below Typ. missNext
Jobs
Nonfarm payrolls Aug 2026 162K 55K +107K -33.0-53.066.0-16.064.0-150.0113.050.087.0-57.0-108.0107.0 62% · 38% n=16 67.7K 10/02 08:30 · 90K
Unemployment rate Aug 2026 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.00.10.1-0.1-0.10.1-0.10.00.0-0.1-0.10.0 24% · 35% n=17 0.06% 10/02 08:30 · 4.1%
Average hourly earnings m/m Aug 2026 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.00.0-0.10.00.10.1-0.1-0.10.00.0-0.20.0 19% · 38% n=16 0.06% 10/02 08:30 · 0.3%
Initial jobless claims Week of Sep 19, 2026 197K 201K −4K -3.0-8.0-24.0-4.0-4.07.0-4.0-5.01.01.0-11.0-4.0 31% · 63% n=71 7.8K 10/01 08:30 · 201K
JOLTS job openings Aug 2026 7.08M 7.23M −0.15M 0.04-0.46-0.67-0.710.19-0.010.010.750.31-0.08-0.06-0.15 39% · 61% n=18 0.270M —
Employment cost index q/q Q2 2026 0.9% 0.8% +0.1% 0.00.1-0.1-0.10.10.1 50% · 33% n=6 0.08% —
Productivity
Productivity q/q (prelim) Q2 2026 1.4% 0.6% +0.8% -0.40.50.00.90.10.8 67% · 17% n=6 0.45% —
Productivity q/q (revised) Q2 2026 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% -0.70.50.0-0.1-0.20.0 17% · 50% n=6 0.25% —
Unit labor costs
Unit labor costs q/q (prelim) Q2 2026 1.3% 2.2% −0.9% 0.40.0-1.90.8-0.3-0.9 33% · 50% n=6 0.72% —
Unit labor costs q/q (revised) Q2 2026 1.2% 1.3% −0.1% 0.9-0.20.00.8-0.6-0.1 33% · 50% n=6 0.43% —
Inflation
CPI m/m Aug 2026 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.00.1-0.10.0-0.10.0-0.10.00.0-0.30.00.0 6% · 44% n=16 0.07% —
CPI y/y Aug 2026 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0-0.1-0.40.0-0.10.0-0.10.10.0-0.30.00.0 12% · 53% n=17 0.09% —
Core CPI m/m Aug 2026 0.3% 0.2% +0.1% 0.00.0-0.1-0.10.00.0-0.10.1-0.1-0.20.00.1 12% · 56% n=16 0.09% —
Core CPI y/y Aug 2026 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0-0.20.00.0 0% · 25% n=4 0.05% —
PPI m/m Aug 2026 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7-0.40.00.30.20.4-0.60.90.4-0.3-0.20.0 38% · 50% n=16 0.38% —
Core PPI m/m Aug 2026 0.2% 0.3% −0.1% 0.7-0.4-0.10.50.50.2-0.30.7-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1 31% · 69% n=16 0.33% —
Core PCE price index m/m Jul 2026 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.00.00.00.00.10.00.00.0-0.10.0-0.10.0 18% · 18% n=17 0.04% 09/30 08:30 · 0.3%
Import prices m/m Aug 2026 0.7% 0.4% +0.3% 0.30.5-0.10.0-0.10.7-1.50.91.01.0-0.50.3 56% · 38% n=16 0.50% —
GDP
GDP q/q (advance) Q2 2026 1.5% 2.1% −0.6% -0.50.5-1.4-0.2-0.6 20% · 80% n=5 0.64% —
GDP q/q (prelim) Q2 2026 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.10.21.0-0.7-0.40.0 50% · 33% n=6 0.40% —
GDP q/q (final) Q1 2026 2.1% 1.6% +0.5% 0.1-0.30.50.1-0.20.5 67% · 33% n=6 0.28% 09/30 08:30 · 1.5%
GDP price index
GDP price index q/q (advance) Q2 2026 6.2% 4.1% +2.1% 0.6-0.20.8-0.22.1 60% · 40% n=5 0.78% —
GDP price index q/q (prelim) Q2 2026 6.4% 6.2% +0.2% 0.00.01.10.2-0.10.2 50% · 17% n=6 0.27% —
GDP price index q/q (final) Q1 2026 3.6% 3.5% +0.1% -0.10.10.10.0-0.10.1 50% · 33% n=6 0.08% 09/30 08:30 · 6.4%
Consumer
Retail sales m/m Aug 2026 1.2% 0.8% +0.4% -0.2-0.10.1-0.40.10.10.30.00.40.0-0.70.4 56% · 33% n=18 0.24% —
Retail sales ex-autos m/m Aug 2026 1.4% 0.6% +0.8% 0.00.20.1-0.3-0.10.20.50.00.2-0.2-0.50.8 50% · 33% n=18 0.24% —
Personal spending m/m Jul 2026 0.2% 0.1% +0.1% 0.00.10.00.00.00.1-0.10.00.00.1-0.10.1 29% · 29% n=17 0.06% 09/30 08:30 · 0.8%
Personal income m/m Jul 2026 0.4% 0.2% +0.2% 0.00.10.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.40.3-0.40.3-0.10.2 53% · 35% n=17 0.23% 09/30 08:30 · 0.5%
Business
Durable goods orders m/m Aug 2026 0.0% -0.3% +0.3% 0.0-0.72.20.4-1.1-0.30.43.90.5-1.30.70.3 74% · 21% n=19 1.86% —
Durables ex-transportation m/m Aug 2026 0.3% 0.6% −0.3% 0.4-0.10.20.6-0.10.30.50.60.8-0.3-0.2-0.3 68% · 32% n=19 0.39% —
Factory orders m/m Jul 2026 0.9% 0.7% +0.2% 0.00.0-0.21.0-0.30.00.31.00.20.4-0.50.2 53% · 29% n=17 0.30% 10/02 10:00 · 0.1%
Business inventories m/m Jul 2026 0.8% 0.6% +0.2% 0.00.10.2-0.10.0-0.10.00.10.00.0-0.20.2 22% · 28% n=18 0.07% —
Industrial production m/m Aug 2026 0.0% 0.3% −0.3% -0.10.20.00.30.30.1-0.60.4-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3 38% · 56% n=16 0.21% —
Capacity utilization Aug 2026 76.3% 76.4% −0.1% -0.10.0-1.00.3-0.40.1-0.60.30.0-0.10.0-0.1 25% · 56% n=16 0.24% —
Empire State manufacturing Sep 2026 7.6 14.8 −7.2 12.512.6-13.76.90.7-4.210.712.3-7.56.310.0-7.2 61% · 39% n=18 8.91 —
Philly Fed manufacturing Sep 2026 37.8 31.3 +6.5 -21.4-2.7-12.714.28.89.816.4-18.00.528.723.36.5 61% · 39% n=18 13.72 —
Trade balance Jul 2026 -88.6B -89.4B +0.8B 1.89.728.7-13.4-14.812.13.20.70.30.7-0.30.8 61% · 39% n=18 5.61B —
Housing
Housing starts Aug 2026 1.27M 1.32M −0.05M 0.0-0.090.030.14-0.06-0.040.150.05-0.250.12-0.1-0.05 38% · 54% n=13 0.091M —
Building permits Aug 2026 1.39M 1.40M −0.01M -0.04-0.030.01-0.04-0.060.08-0.040.06-0.01-0.030.07-0.01 38% · 62% n=13 0.039M —
New home sales Aug 2026 684K 615K +69K 40.049.0-71.0-22.017.0150.0-135.0-39.0-58.019.0-13.069.0 46% · 54% n=13 52.9K —
Construction spending m/m Jul 2026 -0.5% 0.0% −0.5% 0.4-0.7-0.8-0.1-0.40.00.4-0.40.10.0-0.3-0.5 25% · 58% n=12 0.34% 10/01 10:00 · 0.0%

Surprise = actual − forecast, in the release’s own units. Colour shows what the miss means: stronger growth or cooler inflation vs weaker growth or hotter inflation. Next = date (ET) · forecast.

Business inventories m/m

Actual (as first published)Forecast
ReleasedPeriodActualFcstSurpriseσPrevPrev (rev)
2026-09-16Jul 2026 0.8% 0.6% +0.2% 1.9 0.0% 0.1%
2026-08-14Jun 2026 0.0% 0.2% −0.2% -1.9 0.3% 0.4%
2026-07-16May 2026 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5% 0.6%
2026-06-17Apr 2026 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.9% 1.0%
2026-05-14Mar 2026 0.9% 0.8% +0.1% 1.0 0.4% 0.4%
2026-04-21Feb 2026 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 -0.1% 0.0%
2026-04-01Jan 2026 -0.1% 0.0% −0.1% -1.0 0.1% 0.0%
2026-03-06Dec 2025 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1% 0.0%
2026-02-10Nov 2025 0.1% 0.2% −0.1% -1.0 0.3% 0.2%
2026-01-14Oct 2025 0.3% 0.1% +0.2% 1.9 0.2% 0.3%
2025-12-16Sep 2025 0.2% 0.1% +0.1% 1.0 0.0% 0.0%
2025-11-25Aug 2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2% 0.1%
2025-09-16Jul 2025 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2% 0.2%
2025-08-15Jun 2025 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
2025-07-17May 2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
2025-06-17Apr 2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1% 0.1%
2025-05-15Mar 2025 0.1% 0.2% −0.1% -1.0 0.2% 0.2%
2025-04-16Feb 2025 0.2% 0.3% −0.1% -1.0 0.3% 0.3%

Forecast history begins March 2025. Actuals are the numbers published on release day, before later revisions.

How to read this page

Actual vs forecast. Before each release, economists publish a consensus forecast. Markets price that forecast in ahead of time, so what moves stocks, bonds and rate expectations on release day is the surprise: the actual minus the forecast.

First print, not today’s number. Every actual here is what was published on the day. Payrolls, GDP, retail sales and many other series are revised later — the prior period’s revision in each release is shown as rev. GDP and productivity have several estimates per quarter (advance, second, third), each scored against its own forecast.

σ (sigma). The surprise divided by the standard deviation of that indicator’s past misses. It puts a 0.1% CPI miss and a 50K payrolls miss on the same scale: under 1σ is ordinary, above 2σ is a genuine shock.

Above · below. How often releases came in above or below forecast (the rest matched exactly). A persistent lean means forecasters have been systematically behind the data.