Economic releases

Actual vs forecast for major U.S. data — every print as first published, how far it missed, and how often each indicator beats expectations.

Scorecard History Guide

Today’s releases

Live

Times ET · numbers appear here seconds after they are published

Scorecard

Latest print per indicator
IndicatorPeriodActualFcst SurpriseLast 12 Above · below Typ. missNext
Jobs
Nonfarm payrolls Oct 2026 · released 11/06 165K 65K +100K 66.0-16.064.0-150.0113.050.087.0-57.0-108.0107.0-60.0100.0 61% · 39% n=18 69.1K 12/04 08:30
Unemployment rate Oct 2026 · released 11/06 4.1% 4.2% −0.1% 0.1-0.1-0.10.1-0.10.00.0-0.1-0.10.00.1-0.1 26% · 37% n=19 0.07% 12/04 08:30
Average hourly earnings m/m Oct 2026 · released 11/06 0.4% 0.3% +0.1% -0.10.00.10.1-0.1-0.10.00.0-0.20.0-0.20.1 22% · 39% n=18 0.07% 12/04 08:30
Initial jobless claims Week of Nov 7, 2026 · released 11/12 200K 194K +6K -5.01.01.0-11.0-4.0-4.0-3.00.0-6.0-4.0-8.06.0 29% · 64% n=78 7.5K 11/19 08:30
JOLTS job openings Sep 2026 · released 11/03 7.52M 7.15M +0.37M -0.46-0.67-0.710.19-0.010.010.750.31-0.08-0.06-0.150.37 42% · 58% n=19 0.275M 12/01 10:00
Employment cost index q/q Q3 2026 · released 10/30 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.00.1-0.1-0.10.10.10.0 43% · 29% n=7 0.07% —
Productivity
Productivity q/q (prelim) Q3 2026 · released 11/05 3.6% 2.8% +0.8% -0.40.50.00.90.10.80.8 71% · 14% n=7 0.50% —
Productivity q/q (revised) Q2 2026 · released 09/03 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% -0.70.50.0-0.1-0.20.0 17% · 50% n=6 0.25% 12/08 08:30
Unit labor costs
Unit labor costs q/q (prelim) Q3 2026 · released 11/05 -0.7% 0.3% −1.0% 0.40.0-1.90.8-0.3-0.9-1.0 29% · 57% n=7 0.76% —
Unit labor costs q/q (revised) Q2 2026 · released 09/03 1.2% 1.3% −0.1% 0.9-0.20.00.8-0.6-0.1 33% · 50% n=6 0.43% 12/08 08:30
Inflation
CPI m/m Oct 2026 · released 11/10 0.4% 0.3% +0.1% -0.10.0-0.10.0-0.10.00.0-0.30.00.00.00.1 11% · 39% n=18 0.07% 12/10 08:30
CPI y/y Sep 2026 · released 10/14 3.7% 3.6% +0.1% -0.1-0.40.0-0.10.0-0.10.10.0-0.30.00.00.1 17% · 50% n=18 0.09% 12/10 08:30
Core CPI m/m Oct 2026 · released 11/10 0.3% 0.2% +0.1% -0.1-0.10.00.0-0.10.1-0.1-0.20.00.10.10.1 22% · 50% n=18 0.09% 12/10 08:30
Core CPI y/y Sep 2026 · released 10/14 2.6% 2.5% +0.1% 0.0-0.20.00.00.1 20% · 20% n=5 0.06% 12/10 08:30
PPI m/m Oct 2026 · released today 0.3% 0.4% −0.1% 0.00.30.20.4-0.60.90.4-0.3-0.20.00.7-0.1 39% · 50% n=18 0.38% 12/15 08:30
Core PPI m/m Oct 2026 · released today 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% -0.10.50.50.2-0.30.7-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.40.0 33% · 61% n=18 0.32% 12/15 08:30
Core PCE price index m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/29 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.00.00.10.00.00.0-0.10.0-0.10.0-0.10.0 16% · 21% n=19 0.04% 11/25 08:30
Import prices m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/16 1.1% 0.9% +0.2% 0.5-0.10.0-0.10.7-1.50.91.01.0-0.50.30.2 59% · 35% n=17 0.48% 11/17 08:30
GDP
GDP q/q (advance) Q3 2026 · released 10/29 3.4% 3.2% +0.2% -0.50.5-1.4-0.2-0.60.2 33% · 67% n=6 0.57% —
GDP q/q (prelim) Q2 2026 · released 08/26 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.10.21.0-0.7-0.40.0 50% · 33% n=6 0.40% 11/25 08:30
GDP q/q (final) Q2 2026 · released 09/30 2.2% 1.5% +0.7% 0.1-0.30.50.1-0.20.50.7 71% · 29% n=7 0.34% 12/23 08:30
GDP price index
GDP price index q/q (advance) Q3 2026 · released 10/29 2.2% 3.2% −1.0% 0.6-0.20.8-0.22.1-1.0 50% · 50% n=6 0.82% —
GDP price index q/q (prelim) Q2 2026 · released 08/26 6.4% 6.2% +0.2% 0.00.01.10.2-0.10.2 50% · 17% n=6 0.27% 11/25 08:30
GDP price index q/q (final) Q2 2026 · released 09/30 6.1% 6.4% −0.3% -0.10.10.10.0-0.10.1-0.3 43% · 43% n=7 0.11% 12/23 08:30
Consumer
Retail sales m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/15 0.8% 0.3% +0.5% -0.10.1-0.40.10.10.30.00.40.0-0.70.40.5 58% · 32% n=19 0.26% 11/17 08:30
Retail sales ex-autos m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/15 0.9% 0.6% +0.3% 0.20.1-0.3-0.10.20.50.00.2-0.2-0.50.80.3 53% · 32% n=19 0.25% 11/17 08:30
Personal spending m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/29 0.5% 0.6% −0.1% 0.00.00.00.1-0.10.00.00.1-0.10.10.1-0.1 32% · 32% n=19 0.07% 11/25 08:30
Personal income m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/29 0.2% 0.3% −0.1% 0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.40.3-0.40.3-0.10.2-0.3-0.1 47% · 42% n=19 0.23% 11/25 08:30
Business
Durable goods orders m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/27 1.8% 2.0% −0.2% -0.72.20.4-1.1-0.30.43.90.5-1.30.70.3-0.2 70% · 25% n=20 1.77% 11/25 08:30
Durables ex-transportation m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/27 0.5% 0.6% −0.1% -0.10.20.6-0.10.30.50.60.8-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.1 65% · 35% n=20 0.37% 11/25 08:30
Factory orders m/m Sep 2026 · released 11/03 1.8% 1.2% +0.6% -0.21.0-0.30.00.31.00.20.4-0.50.20.00.6 53% · 26% n=19 0.30% 12/03 10:00
Business inventories m/m Aug 2026 · released 10/15 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.10.2-0.10.0-0.10.00.10.00.0-0.20.20.0 21% · 26% n=19 0.06% 11/17 10:00
Industrial production m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/16 0.7% 0.4% +0.3% 0.20.00.30.30.1-0.60.4-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.30.3 41% · 53% n=17 0.22% 11/17 09:15
Capacity utilization Sep 2026 · released 10/16 76.9% 76.5% +0.4% 0.0-1.00.3-0.40.1-0.60.30.0-0.10.0-0.10.4 29% · 53% n=17 0.25% 11/17 09:15
Empire State manufacturing Oct 2026 · released 10/15 25.5 12.1 +13.4 12.6-13.76.90.7-4.210.712.3-7.56.310.0-7.213.4 63% · 37% n=19 9.14 11/16 08:30
Philly Fed manufacturing Oct 2026 · released 10/15 20.9 28.2 −7.3 -2.7-12.714.28.89.816.4-18.00.528.723.36.5-7.3 58% · 42% n=19 13.38 11/19 08:30
Trade balance Sep 2026 · released 11/04 -105.0B -107.9B +2.9B 28.7-13.4-14.812.13.20.70.30.7-0.30.8-4.82.9 60% · 40% n=20 5.44B 12/08 08:30
Housing
Housing starts Sep 2026 · released 10/20 1.22M 1.30M −0.08M -0.090.030.14-0.06-0.040.150.05-0.250.12-0.1-0.05-0.08 36% · 57% n=14 0.090M 11/18 08:30
Building permits Sep 2026 · released 10/20 1.40M 1.39M +0.01M -0.030.01-0.04-0.060.08-0.040.06-0.01-0.030.07-0.010.01 43% · 57% n=14 0.037M 11/18 08:30
New home sales Sep 2026 · released 10/27 676K 651K +25K 49.0-71.0-22.017.0150.0-135.0-39.0-58.019.0-13.069.025.0 50% · 50% n=14 50.9K 11/25 10:00
Construction spending m/m Sep 2026 · released 11/02 -1.9% 0.4% −2.3% -0.8-0.1-0.40.00.4-0.40.10.0-0.3-0.50.9-2.3 29% · 57% n=14 0.52% 12/01 10:00

Actual = the latest published print, for the period shown; on release day it stays greyed until the new number is out. Surprise = actual − forecast, in the release’s own units. Colour shows what the miss means: stronger growth or cooler inflation vs weaker growth or hotter inflation. Next = date (ET) · forecast.

Business inventories m/m

Actual (as first published)Forecast
ReleasedPeriodActualFcstSurpriseσPrevPrev (rev)
2026-10-15Aug 2026 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.8% 0.9%
2026-09-16Jul 2026 0.8% 0.6% +0.2% 2.0 0.0% 0.1%
2026-08-14Jun 2026 0.0% 0.2% −0.2% -2.0 0.3% 0.4%
2026-07-16May 2026 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5% 0.6%
2026-06-17Apr 2026 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.9% 1.0%
2026-05-14Mar 2026 0.9% 0.8% +0.1% 1.0 0.4% 0.4%
2026-04-21Feb 2026 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 -0.1% 0.0%
2026-04-01Jan 2026 -0.1% 0.0% −0.1% -1.0 0.1% 0.0%
2026-03-06Dec 2025 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1% 0.0%
2026-02-10Nov 2025 0.1% 0.2% −0.1% -1.0 0.3% 0.2%
2026-01-14Oct 2025 0.3% 0.1% +0.2% 2.0 0.2% 0.3%
2025-12-16Sep 2025 0.2% 0.1% +0.1% 1.0 0.0% 0.0%
2025-11-25Aug 2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2% 0.1%
2025-09-16Jul 2025 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2% 0.2%
2025-08-15Jun 2025 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
2025-07-17May 2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0%
2025-06-17Apr 2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1% 0.1%
2025-05-15Mar 2025 0.1% 0.2% −0.1% -1.0 0.2% 0.2%
2025-04-16Feb 2025 0.2% 0.3% −0.1% -1.0 0.3% 0.3%

Forecast history begins March 2025. Actuals are the numbers published on release day, before later revisions.

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How to read this page

Actual vs forecast. Before each release, economists publish a consensus forecast. Markets price that forecast in ahead of time, so what moves stocks, bonds and rate expectations on release day is the surprise: the actual minus the forecast.

First print, not today’s number. Every actual here is what was published on the day. Payrolls, GDP, retail sales and many other series are revised later — the prior period’s revision in each release is shown as rev. GDP and productivity have several estimates per quarter (advance, second, third), each scored against its own forecast.

σ (sigma). The surprise divided by the standard deviation of that indicator’s past misses. It puts a 0.1% CPI miss and a 50K payrolls miss on the same scale: under 1σ is ordinary, above 2σ is a genuine shock.

Above · below. How often releases came in above or below forecast (the rest matched exactly). A persistent lean means forecasters have been systematically behind the data.