Economic releases

Actual vs forecast for major U.S. data — every print as first published, how far it missed, and how often each indicator beats expectations.

Scorecard History Guide

Today’s releases

Live

Times ET · numbers appear here seconds after they are published

Scorecard

Latest print per indicator
IndicatorPeriodActualFcst SurpriseLast 12 Above · below Typ. missNext
Jobs
Nonfarm payrolls Oct 2026 · released 11/06 165K 65K +100K 66.0-16.064.0-150.0113.050.087.0-57.0-108.0107.0-60.0100.0 61% · 39% n=18 69.1K 12/04 08:30
Unemployment rate Oct 2026 · released 11/06 4.1% 4.2% −0.1% 0.1-0.1-0.10.1-0.10.00.0-0.1-0.10.00.1-0.1 26% · 37% n=19 0.07% 12/04 08:30
Average hourly earnings m/m Oct 2026 · released 11/06 0.4% 0.3% +0.1% -0.10.00.10.1-0.1-0.10.00.0-0.20.0-0.20.1 22% · 39% n=18 0.07% 12/04 08:30
Initial jobless claims Week of Nov 7, 2026 · released 11/12 200K 194K +6K -5.01.01.0-11.0-4.0-4.0-3.00.0-6.0-4.0-8.06.0 29% · 64% n=78 7.5K 11/19 08:30
JOLTS job openings Sep 2026 · released 11/03 7.52M 7.15M +0.37M -0.46-0.67-0.710.19-0.010.010.750.31-0.08-0.06-0.150.37 42% · 58% n=19 0.275M 12/01 10:00
Employment cost index q/q Q3 2026 · released 10/30 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.00.1-0.1-0.10.10.10.0 43% · 29% n=7 0.07% —
Productivity
Productivity q/q (prelim) Q3 2026 · released 11/05 3.6% 2.8% +0.8% -0.40.50.00.90.10.80.8 71% · 14% n=7 0.50% —
Productivity q/q (revised) Q2 2026 · released 09/03 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% -0.70.50.0-0.1-0.20.0 17% · 50% n=6 0.25% 12/08 08:30
Unit labor costs
Unit labor costs q/q (prelim) Q3 2026 · released 11/05 -0.7% 0.3% −1.0% 0.40.0-1.90.8-0.3-0.9-1.0 29% · 57% n=7 0.76% —
Unit labor costs q/q (revised) Q2 2026 · released 09/03 1.2% 1.3% −0.1% 0.9-0.20.00.8-0.6-0.1 33% · 50% n=6 0.43% 12/08 08:30
Inflation
CPI m/m Oct 2026 · released 11/10 0.4% 0.3% +0.1% -0.10.0-0.10.0-0.10.00.0-0.30.00.00.00.1 11% · 39% n=18 0.07% 12/10 08:30
CPI y/y Sep 2026 · released 10/14 3.7% 3.6% +0.1% -0.1-0.40.0-0.10.0-0.10.10.0-0.30.00.00.1 17% · 50% n=18 0.09% 12/10 08:30
Core CPI m/m Oct 2026 · released 11/10 0.3% 0.2% +0.1% -0.1-0.10.00.0-0.10.1-0.1-0.20.00.10.10.1 22% · 50% n=18 0.09% 12/10 08:30
Core CPI y/y Sep 2026 · released 10/14 2.6% 2.5% +0.1% 0.0-0.20.00.00.1 20% · 20% n=5 0.06% 12/10 08:30
PPI m/m Oct 2026 · released today 0.3% 0.4% −0.1% 0.00.30.20.4-0.60.90.4-0.3-0.20.00.7-0.1 39% · 50% n=18 0.38% 12/15 08:30
Core PPI m/m Oct 2026 · released today 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% -0.10.50.50.2-0.30.7-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.40.0 33% · 61% n=18 0.32% 12/15 08:30
Core PCE price index m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/29 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.00.00.10.00.00.0-0.10.0-0.10.0-0.10.0 16% · 21% n=19 0.04% 11/25 08:30
Import prices m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/16 1.1% 0.9% +0.2% 0.5-0.10.0-0.10.7-1.50.91.01.0-0.50.30.2 59% · 35% n=17 0.48% 11/17 08:30
GDP
GDP q/q (advance) Q3 2026 · released 10/29 3.4% 3.2% +0.2% -0.50.5-1.4-0.2-0.60.2 33% · 67% n=6 0.57% —
GDP q/q (prelim) Q2 2026 · released 08/26 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.10.21.0-0.7-0.40.0 50% · 33% n=6 0.40% 11/25 08:30
GDP q/q (final) Q2 2026 · released 09/30 2.2% 1.5% +0.7% 0.1-0.30.50.1-0.20.50.7 71% · 29% n=7 0.34% 12/23 08:30
GDP price index
GDP price index q/q (advance) Q3 2026 · released 10/29 2.2% 3.2% −1.0% 0.6-0.20.8-0.22.1-1.0 50% · 50% n=6 0.82% —
GDP price index q/q (prelim) Q2 2026 · released 08/26 6.4% 6.2% +0.2% 0.00.01.10.2-0.10.2 50% · 17% n=6 0.27% 11/25 08:30
GDP price index q/q (final) Q2 2026 · released 09/30 6.1% 6.4% −0.3% -0.10.10.10.0-0.10.1-0.3 43% · 43% n=7 0.11% 12/23 08:30
Consumer
Retail sales m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/15 0.8% 0.3% +0.5% -0.10.1-0.40.10.10.30.00.40.0-0.70.40.5 58% · 32% n=19 0.26% 11/17 08:30
Retail sales ex-autos m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/15 0.9% 0.6% +0.3% 0.20.1-0.3-0.10.20.50.00.2-0.2-0.50.80.3 53% · 32% n=19 0.25% 11/17 08:30
Personal spending m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/29 0.5% 0.6% −0.1% 0.00.00.00.1-0.10.00.00.1-0.10.10.1-0.1 32% · 32% n=19 0.07% 11/25 08:30
Personal income m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/29 0.2% 0.3% −0.1% 0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.40.3-0.40.3-0.10.2-0.3-0.1 47% · 42% n=19 0.23% 11/25 08:30
Business
Durable goods orders m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/27 1.8% 2.0% −0.2% -0.72.20.4-1.1-0.30.43.90.5-1.30.70.3-0.2 70% · 25% n=20 1.77% 11/25 08:30
Durables ex-transportation m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/27 0.5% 0.6% −0.1% -0.10.20.6-0.10.30.50.60.8-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.1 65% · 35% n=20 0.37% 11/25 08:30
Factory orders m/m Sep 2026 · released 11/03 1.8% 1.2% +0.6% -0.21.0-0.30.00.31.00.20.4-0.50.20.00.6 53% · 26% n=19 0.30% 12/03 10:00
Business inventories m/m Aug 2026 · released 10/15 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.10.2-0.10.0-0.10.00.10.00.0-0.20.20.0 21% · 26% n=19 0.06% 11/17 10:00
Industrial production m/m Sep 2026 · released 10/16 0.7% 0.4% +0.3% 0.20.00.30.30.1-0.60.4-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.30.3 41% · 53% n=17 0.22% 11/17 09:15
Capacity utilization Sep 2026 · released 10/16 76.9% 76.5% +0.4% 0.0-1.00.3-0.40.1-0.60.30.0-0.10.0-0.10.4 29% · 53% n=17 0.25% 11/17 09:15
Empire State manufacturing Oct 2026 · released 10/15 25.5 12.1 +13.4 12.6-13.76.90.7-4.210.712.3-7.56.310.0-7.213.4 63% · 37% n=19 9.14 11/16 08:30
Philly Fed manufacturing Oct 2026 · released 10/15 20.9 28.2 −7.3 -2.7-12.714.28.89.816.4-18.00.528.723.36.5-7.3 58% · 42% n=19 13.38 11/19 08:30
Trade balance Sep 2026 · released 11/04 -105.0B -107.9B +2.9B 28.7-13.4-14.812.13.20.70.30.7-0.30.8-4.82.9 60% · 40% n=20 5.44B 12/08 08:30
Housing
Housing starts Sep 2026 · released 10/20 1.22M 1.30M −0.08M -0.090.030.14-0.06-0.040.150.05-0.250.12-0.1-0.05-0.08 36% · 57% n=14 0.090M 11/18 08:30
Building permits Sep 2026 · released 10/20 1.40M 1.39M +0.01M -0.030.01-0.04-0.060.08-0.040.06-0.01-0.030.07-0.010.01 43% · 57% n=14 0.037M 11/18 08:30
New home sales Sep 2026 · released 10/27 676K 651K +25K 49.0-71.0-22.017.0150.0-135.0-39.0-58.019.0-13.069.025.0 50% · 50% n=14 50.9K 11/25 10:00
Construction spending m/m Sep 2026 · released 11/02 -1.9% 0.4% −2.3% -0.8-0.1-0.40.00.4-0.40.10.0-0.3-0.50.9-2.3 29% · 57% n=14 0.52% 12/01 10:00

Actual = the latest published print, for the period shown; on release day it stays greyed until the new number is out. Surprise = actual − forecast, in the release’s own units. Colour shows what the miss means: stronger growth or cooler inflation vs weaker growth or hotter inflation. Next = date (ET) · forecast.

Initial jobless claims

Actual (as first published)Forecast
ReleasedPeriodActualFcstSurpriseσPrevPrev (rev)
2026-11-12Week of Nov 7, 2026 200K 194K +6K 0.6 189K 191K
2026-11-05Week of Oct 31, 2026 189K 197K −8K -0.8 194K 195K
2026-10-29Week of Oct 24, 2026 194K 198K −4K -0.4 194K 195K
2026-10-22Week of Oct 17, 2026 194K 200K −6K -0.6 199K 200K
2026-10-15Week of Oct 10, 2026 199K 199K 0K 0.0 197K 198K
2026-10-08Week of Oct 3, 2026 197K 200K −3K -0.3 197K 199K
2026-10-01Week of Sep 26, 2026 197K 201K −4K -0.4 197K 198K
2026-09-24Week of Sep 19, 2026 197K 201K −4K -0.4 196K 198K
2026-09-17Week of Sep 12, 2026 196K 207K −11K -1.1 206K 206K
2026-09-10Week of Sep 5, 2026 206K 205K +1K 0.1 206K 207K
2026-09-03Week of Aug 29, 2026 206K 205K +1K 0.1 203K 204K
2026-08-27Week of Aug 22, 2026 203K 208K −5K -0.5 206K 207K
2026-08-20Week of Aug 15, 2026 206K 210K −4K -0.4 209K 212K
2026-08-13Week of Aug 8, 2026 209K 202K +7K 0.7 199K 200K
2026-08-06Week of Aug 1, 2026 199K 203K −4K -0.4 197K 198K
2026-07-30Week of Jul 25, 2026 197K 201K −4K -0.4 187K 188K
2026-07-23Week of Jul 18, 2026 187K 211K −24K -2.5 208K 209K
2026-07-16Week of Jul 11, 2026 208K 216K −8K -0.8 215K 216K
2026-07-09Week of Jul 4, 2026 215K 218K −3K -0.3 215K 217K
2026-07-02Week of Jun 27, 2026 215K 219K −4K -0.4 215K 216K
2026-06-25Week of Jun 20, 2026 215K 225K −10K -1.0 226K 227K
2026-06-18Week of Jun 13, 2026 226K 225K +1K 0.1 229K 230K
2026-06-11Week of Jun 6, 2026 229K 220K +9K 0.9 225K 225K
2026-06-04Week of May 30, 2026 225K 214K +11K 1.1 215K 212K
2026-05-28Week of May 23, 2026 215K 211K +4K 0.4 209K 210K
2026-05-21Week of May 16, 2026 209K 210K −1K -0.1 211K 212K
2026-05-14Week of May 9, 2026 211K 205K +6K 0.6 200K 199K
2026-05-07Week of May 2, 2026 200K 205K −5K -0.5 189K 190K
2026-04-30Week of Apr 25, 2026 189K 213K −24K -2.5 214K 215K
2026-04-23Week of Apr 18, 2026 214K 211K +3K 0.3 207K 208K
2026-04-16Week of Apr 11, 2026 207K 213K −6K -0.6 219K 218K
2026-04-09Week of Apr 4, 2026 219K 210K +9K 0.9 202K 203K
2026-04-02Week of Mar 28, 2026 202K 212K −10K -1.0 210K 211K
2026-03-26Week of Mar 21, 2026 210K 211K −1K -0.1 205K 205K
2026-03-19Week of Mar 14, 2026 205K 215K −10K -1.0 213K 213K
2026-03-12Week of Mar 7, 2026 213K 214K −1K -0.1 213K 214K
2026-03-05Week of Feb 28, 2026 213K 215K −2K -0.2 212K 213K
2026-02-26Week of Feb 21, 2026 212K 217K −5K -0.5 206K 208K
2026-02-19Week of Feb 14, 2026 206K 223K −17K -1.8 227K 229K
2026-02-12Week of Feb 7, 2026 227K 222K +5K 0.5 231K 232K
2026-02-05Week of Jan 31, 2026 231K 212K +19K 2.0 209K 209K
2026-01-29Week of Jan 24, 2026 209K 206K +3K 0.3 200K 210K
2026-01-22Week of Jan 17, 2026 200K 209K −9K -0.9 198K 199K
2026-01-15Week of Jan 10, 2026 198K 215K −17K -1.8 208K 207K
2026-01-08Week of Jan 3, 2026 208K 213K −5K -0.5 199K 200K
2025-12-31Week of Dec 27, 2025 199K 219K −20K -2.1 214K 215K
2025-12-24Week of Dec 20, 2025 214K 224K −10K -1.0 224K 224K
2025-12-18Week of Dec 13, 2025 224K 224K 0K 0.0 236K 237K
2025-12-11Week of Dec 6, 2025 236K 220K +16K 1.7 191K 192K
2025-12-04Week of Nov 29, 2025 191K 219K −28K -2.9 216K 218K
2025-11-26Week of Nov 22, 2025 216K 226K −10K -1.0 220K 222K
2025-11-20Week of Nov 15, 2025 220K — — — 232K 228K
2025-11-18Week of Nov 15, 2025 220K — — — 218K 228K
2025-09-25Week of Sep 20, 2025 218K 233K −15K -1.6 231K 232K
2025-09-18Week of Sep 13, 2025 231K 241K −10K -1.0 263K 264K
2025-09-11Week of Sep 6, 2025 263K 235K +28K 2.9 237K 236K
2025-09-04Week of Aug 30, 2025 237K 230K +7K 0.7 229K 229K
2025-08-28Week of Aug 23, 2025 229K 231K −2K -0.2 235K 234K
2025-08-21Week of Aug 16, 2025 235K 226K +9K 0.9 224K 224K
2025-08-14Week of Aug 9, 2025 224K 225K −1K -0.1 226K 227K
2025-08-07Week of Aug 2, 2025 226K 221K +5K 0.5 218K 219K
2025-07-31Week of Jul 26, 2025 218K 222K −4K -0.4 217K 217K
2025-07-24Week of Jul 19, 2025 217K 227K −10K -1.0 221K 221K
2025-07-17Week of Jul 12, 2025 221K 233K −12K -1.2 227K 228K
2025-07-10Week of Jul 5, 2025 227K 236K −9K -0.9 233K 232K
2025-07-03Week of Jun 28, 2025 233K 240K −7K -0.7 236K 237K
2025-06-26Week of Jun 21, 2025 236K 244K −8K -0.8 245K 246K
2025-06-18Week of Jun 14, 2025 245K 246K −1K -0.1 248K 250K
2025-06-12Week of Jun 7, 2025 248K 242K +6K 0.6 247K 248K
2025-06-05Week of May 31, 2025 247K 236K +11K 1.1 240K 239K
2025-05-29Week of May 24, 2025 240K 229K +11K 1.1 227K 226K
2025-05-22Week of May 17, 2025 227K 230K −3K -0.3 229K 229K
2025-05-15Week of May 10, 2025 229K 229K 0K 0.0 228K 229K
2025-05-08Week of May 3, 2025 228K 231K −3K -0.3 241K 241K
2025-05-01Week of Apr 26, 2025 241K 224K +17K 1.8 222K 223K
2025-04-24Week of Apr 19, 2025 222K 222K 0K 0.0 215K 216K
2025-04-17Week of Apr 12, 2025 215K 225K −10K -1.0 223K 224K
2025-04-10Week of Apr 5, 2025 223K 223K 0K 0.0 219K 219K
2025-04-03Week of Mar 29, 2025 219K 225K −6K -0.6 224K 225K
2025-03-27Week of Mar 22, 2025 224K 225K −1K -0.1 223K 225K

Forecast history begins March 2025. Actuals are the numbers published on release day, before later revisions.

Economic news

More headlines

How to read this page

Actual vs forecast. Before each release, economists publish a consensus forecast. Markets price that forecast in ahead of time, so what moves stocks, bonds and rate expectations on release day is the surprise: the actual minus the forecast.

First print, not today’s number. Every actual here is what was published on the day. Payrolls, GDP, retail sales and many other series are revised later — the prior period’s revision in each release is shown as rev. GDP and productivity have several estimates per quarter (advance, second, third), each scored against its own forecast.

σ (sigma). The surprise divided by the standard deviation of that indicator’s past misses. It puts a 0.1% CPI miss and a 50K payrolls miss on the same scale: under 1σ is ordinary, above 2σ is a genuine shock.

Above · below. How often releases came in above or below forecast (the rest matched exactly). A persistent lean means forecasters have been systematically behind the data.