Economic releases
Actual vs forecast for major U.S. data — every print as first published, how far it missed, and how often each indicator beats expectations.
Today’s releases
LiveTimes ET · numbers appear here seconds after they are published
Scorecard
Latest print per indicator| Indicator | Period | Actual | Fcst | Surprise | Last 12 | Above · below | Typ. miss | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jobs | ||||||||
| Nonfarm payrolls | Aug 2026 | 162K | 55K | +107K | 62% · 38% n=16 | 67.7K | 10/02 08:30 · 90K | |
| Unemployment rate | Aug 2026 | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 24% · 35% n=17 | 0.06% | 10/02 08:30 · 4.1% | |
| Average hourly earnings m/m | Aug 2026 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 19% · 38% n=16 | 0.06% | 10/02 08:30 · 0.3% | |
| Initial jobless claims | Week of Sep 19, 2026 | 197K | 201K | −4K | 31% · 63% n=71 | 7.8K | 10/01 08:30 · 201K | |
| JOLTS job openings | Aug 2026 | 7.08M | 7.23M | −0.15M | 39% · 61% n=18 | 0.270M | — | |
| Employment cost index q/q | Q2 2026 | 0.9% | 0.8% | +0.1% | 50% · 33% n=6 | 0.08% | — | |
| Productivity | ||||||||
| Productivity q/q (prelim) | Q2 2026 | 1.4% | 0.6% | +0.8% | 67% · 17% n=6 | 0.45% | — | |
| Productivity q/q (revised) | Q2 2026 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 17% · 50% n=6 | 0.25% | — | |
| Unit labor costs | ||||||||
| Unit labor costs q/q (prelim) | Q2 2026 | 1.3% | 2.2% | −0.9% | 33% · 50% n=6 | 0.72% | — | |
| Unit labor costs q/q (revised) | Q2 2026 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −0.1% | 33% · 50% n=6 | 0.43% | — | |
| Inflation | ||||||||
| CPI m/m | Aug 2026 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 6% · 44% n=16 | 0.07% | — | |
| CPI y/y | Aug 2026 | 3.4% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 12% · 53% n=17 | 0.09% | — | |
| Core CPI m/m | Aug 2026 | 0.3% | 0.2% | +0.1% | 12% · 56% n=16 | 0.09% | — | |
| Core CPI y/y | Aug 2026 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0% · 25% n=4 | 0.05% | — | |
| PPI m/m | Aug 2026 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 38% · 50% n=16 | 0.38% | — | |
| Core PPI m/m | Aug 2026 | 0.2% | 0.3% | −0.1% | 31% · 69% n=16 | 0.33% | — | |
| Core PCE price index m/m | Jul 2026 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 18% · 18% n=17 | 0.04% | 09/30 08:30 · 0.3% | |
| Import prices m/m | Aug 2026 | 0.7% | 0.4% | +0.3% | 56% · 38% n=16 | 0.50% | — | |
| GDP | ||||||||
| GDP q/q (advance) | Q2 2026 | 1.5% | 2.1% | −0.6% | 20% · 80% n=5 | 0.64% | — | |
| GDP q/q (prelim) | Q2 2026 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 50% · 33% n=6 | 0.40% | — | |
| GDP q/q (final) | Q1 2026 | 2.1% | 1.6% | +0.5% | 67% · 33% n=6 | 0.28% | 09/30 08:30 · 1.5% | |
| GDP price index | ||||||||
| GDP price index q/q (advance) | Q2 2026 | 6.2% | 4.1% | +2.1% | 60% · 40% n=5 | 0.78% | — | |
| GDP price index q/q (prelim) | Q2 2026 | 6.4% | 6.2% | +0.2% | 50% · 17% n=6 | 0.27% | — | |
| GDP price index q/q (final) | Q1 2026 | 3.6% | 3.5% | +0.1% | 50% · 33% n=6 | 0.08% | 09/30 08:30 · 6.4% | |
| Consumer | ||||||||
| Retail sales m/m | Aug 2026 | 1.2% | 0.8% | +0.4% | 56% · 33% n=18 | 0.24% | — | |
| Retail sales ex-autos m/m | Aug 2026 | 1.4% | 0.6% | +0.8% | 50% · 33% n=18 | 0.24% | — | |
| Personal spending m/m | Jul 2026 | 0.2% | 0.1% | +0.1% | 29% · 29% n=17 | 0.06% | 09/30 08:30 · 0.8% | |
| Personal income m/m | Jul 2026 | 0.4% | 0.2% | +0.2% | 53% · 35% n=17 | 0.23% | 09/30 08:30 · 0.5% | |
| Business | ||||||||
| Durable goods orders m/m | Aug 2026 | 0.0% | -0.3% | +0.3% | 74% · 21% n=19 | 1.86% | — | |
| Durables ex-transportation m/m | Aug 2026 | 0.3% | 0.6% | −0.3% | 68% · 32% n=19 | 0.39% | — | |
| Factory orders m/m | Jul 2026 | 0.9% | 0.7% | +0.2% | 53% · 29% n=17 | 0.30% | 10/02 10:00 · 0.1% | |
| Business inventories m/m | Jul 2026 | 0.8% | 0.6% | +0.2% | 22% · 28% n=18 | 0.07% | — | |
| Industrial production m/m | Aug 2026 | 0.0% | 0.3% | −0.3% | 38% · 56% n=16 | 0.21% | — | |
| Capacity utilization | Aug 2026 | 76.3% | 76.4% | −0.1% | 25% · 56% n=16 | 0.24% | — | |
| Empire State manufacturing | Sep 2026 | 7.6 | 14.8 | −7.2 | 61% · 39% n=18 | 8.91 | — | |
| Philly Fed manufacturing | Sep 2026 | 37.8 | 31.3 | +6.5 | 61% · 39% n=18 | 13.72 | — | |
| Trade balance | Jul 2026 | -88.6B | -89.4B | +0.8B | 61% · 39% n=18 | 5.61B | — | |
| Housing | ||||||||
| Housing starts | Aug 2026 | 1.27M | 1.32M | −0.05M | 38% · 54% n=13 | 0.091M | — | |
| Building permits | Aug 2026 | 1.39M | 1.40M | −0.01M | 38% · 62% n=13 | 0.039M | — | |
| New home sales | Aug 2026 | 684K | 615K | +69K | 46% · 54% n=13 | 52.9K | — | |
| Construction spending m/m | Jul 2026 | -0.5% | 0.0% | −0.5% | 25% · 58% n=12 | 0.34% | 10/01 10:00 · 0.0% | |
Surprise = actual − forecast, in the release’s own units. Colour shows what the miss means: stronger growth or cooler inflation vs weaker growth or hotter inflation. Next = date (ET) · forecast.
Initial jobless claims
Actual (as first published)Forecast
| Released | Period | Actual | Fcst | Surprise | σ | Prev | Prev (rev) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Week of Sep 19, 2026 | 197K | 201K | −4K | -0.4 | 196K | 198K |
| 2026-09-17 | Week of Sep 12, 2026 | 196K | 207K | −11K | -1.1 | 206K | 206K |
| 2026-09-10 | Week of Sep 5, 2026 | 206K | 205K | +1K | 0.1 | 206K | 207K |
| 2026-09-03 | Week of Aug 29, 2026 | 206K | 205K | +1K | 0.1 | 203K | 204K |
| 2026-08-27 | Week of Aug 22, 2026 | 203K | 208K | −5K | -0.5 | 206K | 207K |
| 2026-08-20 | Week of Aug 15, 2026 | 206K | 210K | −4K | -0.4 | 209K | 212K |
| 2026-08-13 | Week of Aug 8, 2026 | 209K | 202K | +7K | 0.7 | 199K | 200K |
| 2026-08-06 | Week of Aug 1, 2026 | 199K | 203K | −4K | -0.4 | 197K | 198K |
| 2026-07-30 | Week of Jul 25, 2026 | 197K | 201K | −4K | -0.4 | 187K | 188K |
| 2026-07-23 | Week of Jul 18, 2026 | 187K | 211K | −24K | -2.4 | 208K | 209K |
| 2026-07-16 | Week of Jul 11, 2026 | 208K | 216K | −8K | -0.8 | 215K | 216K |
| 2026-07-09 | Week of Jul 4, 2026 | 215K | 218K | −3K | -0.3 | 215K | 217K |
| 2026-07-02 | Week of Jun 27, 2026 | 215K | 219K | −4K | -0.4 | 215K | 216K |
| 2026-06-25 | Week of Jun 20, 2026 | 215K | 225K | −10K | -1.0 | 226K | 227K |
| 2026-06-18 | Week of Jun 13, 2026 | 226K | 225K | +1K | 0.1 | 229K | 230K |
| 2026-06-11 | Week of Jun 6, 2026 | 229K | 220K | +9K | 0.9 | 225K | 225K |
| 2026-06-04 | Week of May 30, 2026 | 225K | 214K | +11K | 1.1 | 215K | 212K |
| 2026-05-28 | Week of May 23, 2026 | 215K | 211K | +4K | 0.4 | 209K | 210K |
| 2026-05-21 | Week of May 16, 2026 | 209K | 210K | −1K | -0.1 | 211K | 212K |
| 2026-05-14 | Week of May 9, 2026 | 211K | 205K | +6K | 0.6 | 200K | 199K |
| 2026-05-07 | Week of May 2, 2026 | 200K | 205K | −5K | -0.5 | 189K | 190K |
| 2026-04-30 | Week of Apr 25, 2026 | 189K | 213K | −24K | -2.4 | 214K | 215K |
| 2026-04-23 | Week of Apr 18, 2026 | 214K | 211K | +3K | 0.3 | 207K | 208K |
| 2026-04-16 | Week of Apr 11, 2026 | 207K | 213K | −6K | -0.6 | 219K | 218K |
| 2026-04-09 | Week of Apr 4, 2026 | 219K | 210K | +9K | 0.9 | 202K | 203K |
| 2026-04-02 | Week of Mar 28, 2026 | 202K | 212K | −10K | -1.0 | 210K | 211K |
| 2026-03-26 | Week of Mar 21, 2026 | 210K | 211K | −1K | -0.1 | 205K | 205K |
| 2026-03-19 | Week of Mar 14, 2026 | 205K | 215K | −10K | -1.0 | 213K | 213K |
| 2026-03-12 | Week of Mar 7, 2026 | 213K | 214K | −1K | -0.1 | 213K | 214K |
| 2026-03-05 | Week of Feb 28, 2026 | 213K | 215K | −2K | -0.2 | 212K | 213K |
| 2026-02-26 | Week of Feb 21, 2026 | 212K | 217K | −5K | -0.5 | 206K | 208K |
| 2026-02-19 | Week of Feb 14, 2026 | 206K | 223K | −17K | -1.7 | 227K | 229K |
| 2026-02-12 | Week of Feb 7, 2026 | 227K | 222K | +5K | 0.5 | 231K | 232K |
| 2026-02-05 | Week of Jan 31, 2026 | 231K | 212K | +19K | 1.9 | 209K | 209K |
| 2026-01-29 | Week of Jan 24, 2026 | 209K | 206K | +3K | 0.3 | 200K | 210K |
| 2026-01-22 | Week of Jan 17, 2026 | 200K | 209K | −9K | -0.9 | 198K | 199K |
| 2026-01-15 | Week of Jan 10, 2026 | 198K | 215K | −17K | -1.7 | 208K | 207K |
| 2026-01-08 | Week of Jan 3, 2026 | 208K | 213K | −5K | -0.5 | 199K | 200K |
| 2025-12-31 | Week of Dec 27, 2025 | 199K | 219K | −20K | -2.0 | 214K | 215K |
| 2025-12-24 | Week of Dec 20, 2025 | 214K | 224K | −10K | -1.0 | 224K | 224K |
| 2025-12-18 | Week of Dec 13, 2025 | 224K | 224K | 0K | 0.0 | 236K | 237K |
| 2025-12-11 | Week of Dec 6, 2025 | 236K | 220K | +16K | 1.6 | 191K | 192K |
| 2025-12-04 | Week of Nov 29, 2025 | 191K | 219K | −28K | -2.8 | 216K | 218K |
| 2025-11-26 | Week of Nov 22, 2025 | 216K | 226K | −10K | -1.0 | 220K | 222K |
| 2025-11-20 | Week of Nov 15, 2025 | 220K | — | — | — | 232K | 228K |
| 2025-11-18 | Week of Nov 15, 2025 | 220K | — | — | — | 218K | 228K |
| 2025-09-25 | Week of Sep 20, 2025 | 218K | 233K | −15K | -1.5 | 231K | 232K |
| 2025-09-18 | Week of Sep 13, 2025 | 231K | 241K | −10K | -1.0 | 263K | 264K |
| 2025-09-11 | Week of Sep 6, 2025 | 263K | 235K | +28K | 2.8 | 237K | 236K |
| 2025-09-04 | Week of Aug 30, 2025 | 237K | 230K | +7K | 0.7 | 229K | 229K |
| 2025-08-28 | Week of Aug 23, 2025 | 229K | 231K | −2K | -0.2 | 235K | 234K |
| 2025-08-21 | Week of Aug 16, 2025 | 235K | 226K | +9K | 0.9 | 224K | 224K |
| 2025-08-14 | Week of Aug 9, 2025 | 224K | 225K | −1K | -0.1 | 226K | 227K |
| 2025-08-07 | Week of Aug 2, 2025 | 226K | 221K | +5K | 0.5 | 218K | 219K |
| 2025-07-31 | Week of Jul 26, 2025 | 218K | 222K | −4K | -0.4 | 217K | 217K |
| 2025-07-24 | Week of Jul 19, 2025 | 217K | 227K | −10K | -1.0 | 221K | 221K |
| 2025-07-17 | Week of Jul 12, 2025 | 221K | 233K | −12K | -1.2 | 227K | 228K |
| 2025-07-10 | Week of Jul 5, 2025 | 227K | 236K | −9K | -0.9 | 233K | 232K |
| 2025-07-03 | Week of Jun 28, 2025 | 233K | 240K | −7K | -0.7 | 236K | 237K |
| 2025-06-26 | Week of Jun 21, 2025 | 236K | 244K | −8K | -0.8 | 245K | 246K |
| 2025-06-18 | Week of Jun 14, 2025 | 245K | 246K | −1K | -0.1 | 248K | 250K |
| 2025-06-12 | Week of Jun 7, 2025 | 248K | 242K | +6K | 0.6 | 247K | 248K |
| 2025-06-05 | Week of May 31, 2025 | 247K | 236K | +11K | 1.1 | 240K | 239K |
| 2025-05-29 | Week of May 24, 2025 | 240K | 229K | +11K | 1.1 | 227K | 226K |
| 2025-05-22 | Week of May 17, 2025 | 227K | 230K | −3K | -0.3 | 229K | 229K |
| 2025-05-15 | Week of May 10, 2025 | 229K | 229K | 0K | 0.0 | 228K | 229K |
| 2025-05-08 | Week of May 3, 2025 | 228K | 231K | −3K | -0.3 | 241K | 241K |
| 2025-05-01 | Week of Apr 26, 2025 | 241K | 224K | +17K | 1.7 | 222K | 223K |
| 2025-04-24 | Week of Apr 19, 2025 | 222K | 222K | 0K | 0.0 | 215K | 216K |
| 2025-04-17 | Week of Apr 12, 2025 | 215K | 225K | −10K | -1.0 | 223K | 224K |
| 2025-04-10 | Week of Apr 5, 2025 | 223K | 223K | 0K | 0.0 | 219K | 219K |
| 2025-04-03 | Week of Mar 29, 2025 | 219K | 225K | −6K | -0.6 | 224K | 225K |
| 2025-03-27 | Week of Mar 22, 2025 | 224K | 225K | −1K | -0.1 | 223K | 225K |
Forecast history begins March 2025. Actuals are the numbers published on release day, before later revisions.
How to read this page
Actual vs forecast. Before each release, economists publish a consensus forecast. Markets price that forecast in ahead of time, so what moves stocks, bonds and rate expectations on release day is the surprise: the actual minus the forecast.
First print, not today’s number. Every actual here is what was published on the day. Payrolls, GDP, retail sales and many other series are revised later — the prior period’s revision in each release is shown as rev. GDP and productivity have several estimates per quarter (advance, second, third), each scored against its own forecast.
σ (sigma). The surprise divided by the standard deviation of that indicator’s past misses. It puts a 0.1% CPI miss and a 50K payrolls miss on the same scale: under 1σ is ordinary, above 2σ is a genuine shock.
Above · below. How often releases came in above or below forecast (the rest matched exactly). A persistent lean means forecasters have been systematically behind the data.