Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
50/50 line44%Ilhan Omar
Line nearest 50/50
44%
Runner-up
22%
Biggest 24h move+8 pts
18%
24h volume
$24K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noIlhan Omar
44%
John Brennan
22%
Dan J. Sullivan
18%
+8
Gustavo Petro
15%
+1
Corey Lewandowski
13%
+2
Anthony Fauci
12%
-1
Jack Smith
10%
James Clapper
10%
Peter Strzok
9%
Lisa Cook
9%
Keith Ellison
9%
-3
Hunter Biden
8%
Tim Walz
8%
+ 14 more in the table below.
Odds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
Where the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Anthony FauciYES $0 · NO $9K · 1 orders · biggest $9K
- Barack ObamaYES $0 · NO $7K · 2 orders · biggest $5K
- Hillary ClintonYES $0 · NO $5K · 1 orders · biggest $5K
- Ilhan OmarYES $2K · NO $2K · 3 orders · biggest $2K
- Hunter BidenYES $0 · NO $3K · 2 orders · biggest $2K
- Joe BidenYES $0 · NO $3K · 1 orders · biggest $3K
- Gavin NewsomYES $0 · NO $3K · 1 orders · biggest $3K
- Cassidy HutchinsonYES $0 · NO $3K · 2 orders · biggest $1K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar | YES | 58¢ | $2K | |
| Chris Christie | NO | 95¢ | $2K | |
| George Soros | NO | 94¢ | $1K | |
| Hunter Biden | NO | 92¢ | $1K | |
| Jacob Frey | NO | 94¢ | $2K | |
| Ilhan Omar | NO | 64¢ | $1K | |
| Ilhan Omar | NO | 63¢ | $1K | |
| Barack Obama | NO | 97¢ | $2K | |
| Cassidy Hutchinson | NO | 79¢ | $1K | |
| Anthony Fauci | NO | 87¢ | $9K |
All outcomes
28| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar | 44% | +0.5 | $11K | $185K |
| John Brennan | 22% | — | $619 | $31K |
| Dan J. Sullivan | 18% | +8.0 | $1K | $8K |
| Gustavo Petro | 15% | +1.0 | $10 | $5K |
| Corey Lewandowski | 13% | +2.0 | $40 | $2K |
| Anthony Fauci | 12% | -1.0 | $142 | $185K |
| Jack Smith | 10% | +0.5 | $10 | $27K |
| James Clapper | 10% | — | $580 | $5K |
| Peter Strzok | 9% | — | $15 | $7K |
| Lisa Cook | 9% | — | $120 | $17K |
| Keith Ellison | 9% | -2.6 | $18 | $9K |
| Cassidy Hutchinson | 8% | -0.5 | $93 | $11K |
| Hunter Biden | 8% | — | $2K | $14K |
| Tim Walz | 8% | — | $61 | $72K |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle | 8% | -1.5 | $15 | $7K |
| Tucker Carlson | 7% | +2.9 | $154 | $7K |
| Gavin Newsom | 6% | +1.0 | $355 | $10K |
| Letitia James | 6% | — | $297 | $19K |
| Mark Kelly | 6% | — | $25 | $7K |
| George Soros | 6% | -0.5 | $2K | $14K |
| Liz Cheney | 5% | — | $987 | $6K |
| Hillary Clinton | 5% | +2.1 | $3K | $29K |
| Alvin Bragg | 5% | -1.0 | $28 | $11K |
| E. Jean Carroll | 4% | -1.5 | $28 | $8K |
| Reid Hoffman | 4% | — | $217 | $3K |
| Chris Christie | 3% | — | $2K | $5K |
| Barack Obama | 3% | — | $193 | $63K |
| Joe Biden | 3% | — | $107 | $11K |