Time's Person of the Year for 2026
50/50 line30%Zohran Mamdani
Line nearest 50/50
30%
Runner-up
19%
Biggest 24h move+2 pts
19%
24h volume
$13K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noZohran Mamdani
30%
Pope Leo XIV
19%
+2
Mark Carney
16%
Donald Trump
10%
James Talarico
8%
-1
Dario Amodei
8%
+1
AI
7%
+3
Elon Musk
6%
Marco Rubio
6%
Sam Altman
4%
-1
Abdul El-Sayed
4%
-1
ChatGPT
4%
Xi Jinping
4%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
3%
+2
+ 9 more in the table below.
Odds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
Where the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Benjamin NetanyahuYES $0 · NO $5K · 2 orders · biggest $4K
- Zohran MamdaniYES $2K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $2K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | YES | 30¢ | $2K | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | NO | 98¢ | $4K | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | NO | 95¢ | $1K |
All outcomes
23| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 30% | — | $8K | $472K |
| Pope Leo XIV | 19% | +2.0 | $841 | $89K |
| Mark Carney | 16% | — | $152 | $35K |
| Donald Trump | 10% | — | $90 | $85K |
| James Talarico | 8% | -1.0 | $234 | $7K |
| Dario Amodei | 8% | +1.0 | $68 | $18K |
| AI | 7% | +3.0 | $290 | $84K |
| Elon Musk | 6% | — | $67 | $25K |
| Marco Rubio | 6% | — | $10 | $5K |
| Sam Altman | 4% | -1.0 | $148 | $12K |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 4% | -1.0 | $340 | $3K |
| ChatGPT | 4% | — | $23 | $10K |
| Xi Jinping | 4% | — | $1 | $7K |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 3% | +2.0 | $141 | $883 |
| Lionel Messi | 3% | +1.0 | $46 | $8K |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2% | -0.5 | $1K | $14K |
| Pete Hegseth | 2% | -1.0 | $16 | $1K |
| Alysa Liu | 2% | — | $50 | $3K |
| James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast | 2% | — | $9 | $1K |
| Bernie Sanders | 2% | -1.0 | $1 | $14K |
| Taylor Swift | 2% | — | $207 | $11K |
| JD Vance | 1% | +2.0 | $380 | $1K |
| Kevin Warsh | 0% | — | $605 | $5K |