What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Entertainment

Pope Leo XIV

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 240 Open interest 28.8K Event Time's Person of the Year for 2026

18%

implied YES probability

Last 85 days · High 21% · Low 6% · 7d +12.5pp · 30d -5.3pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.