What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa?
50/50 line48%Kamala
Line nearest 50/50
48%
Runner-up
87%
Biggest 24h move-32 pts
32%
24h volume
$425K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noSave America Act
92%
-4
America First
87%
+2
Tariff (3+ times)
84%
-10
Canada / Canadian
78%
+2
Iran (5+ times)
78%
-6
Fraud (3+ times)
76%
+10
Nuclear (3+ times)
76%
-10
China / Chinese
76%
-11
Steel
75%
-18
Small Business
72%
+17
Ethanol
70%
-12
Hormuz
69%
-9
Gulf of America
53%
+4
+ 25 more in the table below.
Odds over time
hourlyHourly closing odds for the leading outcomes.
Where the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Event does not qualifyYES $7K · NO $7K · 7 orders · biggest $4K
- Crypto / BitcoinYES $0 · NO $4K · 2 orders · biggest $3K
- Save America ActYES $1K · NO $1K · 2 orders · biggest $1K
- Tariff (3+ times)YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
- Made in America / American MadeYES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
- Fraud (3+ times)YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
- Iran (5+ times)YES $0 · NO $1K · 1 orders · biggest $1K
- HormuzYES $0 · NO $1K · 1 orders · biggest $1K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | NO | 97¢ | $1K | |
| Event does not qualify | NO | 93¢ | $1K | |
| Event does not qualify | NO | 90¢ | $2K | |
| Save America Act | YES | 88¢ | $1K | |
| Event does not qualify | NO | 64¢ | $1K | |
| Event does not qualify | NO | 44¢ | $1K | |
| Made in America / American Made | NO | 98¢ | $2K | |
| Fraud (3+ times) | NO | 94¢ | $2K | |
| Iran (5+ times) | NO | 97¢ | $1K | |
| Tariff (3+ times) | NO | 98¢ | $2K |
All outcomes
39| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Save America Act | 92% | -3.5 | $29K | $13K |
| America First | 87% | +2.0 | $18K | $7K |
| Tariff (3+ times) | 84% | -10.0 | $28K | $13K |
| Canada / Canadian | 78% | +2.0 | $4K | $3K |
| Iran (5+ times) | 78% | -6.5 | $14K | $8K |
| Fraud (3+ times) | 76% | +10.5 | $19K | $13K |
| Nuclear (3+ times) | 76% | -10.5 | $10K | $7K |
| China / Chinese | 76% | -11.0 | $9K | $5K |
| Steel | 75% | -18.0 | $12K | $6K |
| Made in America / American Made | 75% | -6.0 | $10K | $7K |
| Small Business | 72% | +17.0 | $9K | $7K |
| Ethanol | 70% | -11.5 | $5K | $4K |
| Hormuz | 69% | -9.0 | $12K | $8K |
| Gulf of America | 53% | +4.0 | $10K | $6K |
| Kamala | 48% | -26.5 | $13K | $10K |
| ICE | 44% | -8.5 | $4K | $3K |
| Supreme Court | 36% | -29.5 | $3K | $2K |
| Russia / Ukraine | 32% | -31.5 | $7K | $4K |
| Electricity | 29% | +5.0 | $10K | $8K |
| Veteran | 28% | -4.5 | $2K | $1K |
| Corn | 23% | -15.0 | $9K | $8K |
| Israel / Israeli | 23% | -20.0 | $3K | $3K |
| Greenland | 20% | -5.0 | $5K | $4K |
| Cattle | 18% | -15.5 | $4K | $4K |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | 18% | -13.5 | $9K | $8K |
| Windmill | 18% | +2.0 | $7K | $4K |
| Blockade | 16% | -22.0 | $5K | $4K |
| Elon / Musk | 14% | -2.5 | $4K | $4K |
| Data Center | 12% | -5.0 | $6K | $5K |
| Space Force | 9% | -24.0 | $3K | $3K |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 8% | -3.0 | $7K | $5K |
| Fentanyl | 8% | -5.0 | $4K | $4K |
| Trump Account | 6% | -2.0 | $5K | $5K |
| Ceasefire | 6% | -3.5 | $4K | $5K |
| Social Security (5+ times) | 5% | -15.0 | $10K | $8K |
| Palestine / Palestinian | 5% | -7.0 | $4K | $3K |
| Event does not qualify | 2% | -0.5 | $78K | $35K |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 1% | — | $23K | $31K |
| Peace in the Middle East | 1% | -2.0 | $8K | $8K |
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