How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

7 outcomesSettles Jan 01, 2027 (48d)

50/50 line4%Above 92,000 MW

Line nearest 50/50

Above 92,000 MW

Market median

91500MW

even odds of landing above or below

Biggest 24h move

—

odds steady over the last day

24h volume

$234

$116K open interest · $1 contracts

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no

Above 91,500 MW 4%

Above 92,000 MW 4%

Above 92,500 MW 4%

Above 93,000 MW 2%

Above 94,000 MW 2%

Above 96,000 MW 2%

Above 98,000 MW 2%

median 91500MW

Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.

rungs nearest 50/50 · daily

7 days · ≥ $1K

When	Outcome	Side	Price	Size
Nov 8, 10:21 AM ET	Above 92,500 MW	NO	97¢	$2K

Outcome	Odds	24h change	24h volume	Open interest
Above 91,500 MW	4%	+0.5	$0	$37K
Above 92,000 MW	4%	-0.5	$234	$39K
Above 92,500 MW	4%	-0.5	$0	$7K
Above 93,000 MW	2%	—	$0	$10K
Above 94,000 MW	2%	—	$0	$10K
Above 96,000 MW	2%	-0.5	$0	$10K
Above 98,000 MW	2%	-0.5	$0	$4K