Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
50/50 line52%Mark Rutte
Line nearest 50/50
52%
Runner-up
100%
Biggest 24h move
—
24h volume
$2K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAntónio Costa
100%
+3
Donald Tusk
100%
+42
Maia Sandu
100%
+2
Steve Witkoff
100%
+4
Jared Kushner
100%
+5
Keith Kellogg
100%
Friedrich Merz
100%
+29
Andy Burnham
100%
+5
Mark Rutte
52%
+6
Ursula von der Leyen
38%
-6
Melania Trump
28%
-19
António Guterres
10%
-4
Emmanuel Macron
10%
-1
JD Vance
9%
-25
+ 2 more in the table below.
Odds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
All outcomes
16| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| António Costa | 100% | +2.9 | $0 | $43K |
| Donald Tusk | 100% | +41.9 | $0 | $43K |
| Maia Sandu | 100% | +1.9 | $0 | $43K |
| Steve Witkoff | 100% | +3.9 | $0 | $43K |
| Jared Kushner | 100% | +4.9 | $0 | $43K |
| Keith Kellogg | 100% | +0.5 | $0 | $43K |
| Friedrich Merz | 100% | +28.9 | $0 | $43K |
| Andy Burnham | 100% | +5.0 | $0 | $43K |
| Mark Rutte | 52% | +5.5 | $381 | $43K |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 38% | -6.5 | $76 | $43K |
| Melania Trump | 28% | -19.0 | $485 | $43K |
| António Guterres | 10% | -4.5 | $174 | $43K |
| Emmanuel Macron | 10% | -1.0 | $0 | $43K |
| JD Vance | 9% | -25.1 | $459 | $43K |
| Mark Carney | 8% | — | $0 | $43K |
| Donald Trump | 5% | -1.4 | $280 | $43K |
How it settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.