What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 56%, implying a 56% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket World

Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

Ursula von der Leyen

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (152d) 24h volume $523 Open interest $7.7K Event Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

56%

implied YES probability

-12.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 3 days · High 68% · Low 60%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.