Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (49d) All outcomes: Who will be arrested in 2026?

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chance of YES8% -5.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
6–37%
30d -78 pts · 7d -63 pts
24h volume
1.9K
$1 contracts
Open interest
34.7K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
$2K
0% on YES

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Recent large orders

≥ $1K · 14 days
WhenSidePriceContractsSize
NO94¢ 1,794$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.