What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 5%, implying a 5% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (49d) All outcomes: Who will be arrested in 2026?

chance of YES5% +2.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

4–15%

30d -32 pts · 7d -39 pts

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

27.1K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.