Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?
chance of YES24%
+2.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
17–45%
24h volume
3.9K
Open interest
170.4K
Bid / ask
23¢ / 24¢
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Order book
top 5| Bid | Size | Ask | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.0¢ | 47 | 24.0¢ | 4,950 |
| 22.0¢ | 179 | 25.0¢ | 13 |
| 21.0¢ | 1,095 | 26.0¢ | 10,336 |
| 20.0¢ | 1,075 | 27.0¢ | 1,100 |
| 19.0¢ | 1,005 | 28.0¢ | 510 |
Mid 23.5¢ · spread 1.0¢
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts38%853
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts14%15.2K
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts10%8.6K
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts6%301
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts2%696
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts2%2.0K
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 81¢ | 7,358 | $6K | |
| NO | 81¢ | 1,941 | $2K | |
| NO | 79¢ | 2,246 | $2K | |
| NO | 76¢ | 4,039 | $3K | |
| YES | 31¢ | 6,060 | $2K | |
| YES | 28¢ | 4,086 | $1K | |
| NO | 79¢ | 1,614 | $1K | |
| NO | 77¢ | 2,168 | $2K | |
| NO | 77¢ | 2,217 | $2K | |
| NO | 85¢ | 3,000 | $3K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.